BEIRUT: A US raid in Syria has irritated Damascus, but is unlikely to deflect its drive to escape international isolation and engage with Washington after next week’s US presidential election.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem did not hide his exasperation with President George W. Bush after Sunday’s attack by helicopter-borne commandos near the Iraqi border.
“This administration is ignorant, I will not waste my time with this administration,” Moualem told Reuters in London.
A US official, who refused to be named, said the raid had killed Abu Ghadiya, a militant who smuggled foreign fighters into Iraq. Syria says the Americans killed eight civilians.
The assault, in a remote area where strong tribal groups straddle the border, was the first known to have been mounted by US forces into Syria since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
It occurred even though the former US commander there, General David Petraeus, said this month the flow of foreign fighters from Syria to Sunni insurgents, including Al Qaeda in Iraq, had fallen to 10 or 20 a month from a peak of 160.
“It’s a one-off operation,” said Timur Goksel, a former spokesman for UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon and now an academic. “The Syrians won’t react militarily and it won’t have a major impact on any future US engagement with Syria.”
The raid followed US attacks on suspected Taliban and Al Qaeda militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas that underline the Bush administration’s readiness to strike at designated enemies beyond the borders of war theatres like Iraq and Afghanistan.
But Arab analysts suggested this might only become a pattern if Republican candidate John McCain defeats his Democrat rival Barack Obama in the race for the White House.
“It might be an effort to sabotage an Obama administration,” Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, said of the Syria raid. “One would expect an outgoing US president not to do anything so drastic.”
Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Centre in Beirut, saw the strike as a US message of toughness to the Syrians, but said it would not throw them off course.
“The Syrians have positioned themselves where they want to be,” he said, adding that Damascus was seeking better ties with Washington and was clearly hoping for an Obama presidency.
Against the grain
The raid seemed to run counter to previous signals that the White House was rethinking its attempts to isolate Syria – a US official said this month the policy was under scrutiny.
Some European leaders have already abandoned the effort.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana have both visited Syria recently.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice herself met Moualem at the United Nations last month, their third meeting in 18 months. Moualem called the talks an “introduction to dialogue”.
Rice’s staff said they were an attempt to push Syria to change its behaviour in several areas – ties with Iran, border security with Iraq, harbouring Palestinian militant groups such as Hamas, as well as the slow pace of human rights reform.
Syria gained some favour with the West by cooperating in a deal to enable the election of a new president in Lebanon in May and by deciding to forge diplomatic ties with the neighbour it had dominated militarily for nearly three decades.
It remains an ally of Iran and anti-Israeli groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas, but its indirect talks with Israel over the past year show interest in a peace deal that would require solid, sustained US support to pull off.
The Bush administration has shown no enthusiasm for the Turkish-brokered Syrian-Israeli dialogue. No shift towards direct negotiations is expected before a new US president takes office and an Israeli election next year.
Syria, unmoved by US sanctions, has often signalled its desire for good relations with Washington, a prize for Damascus perhaps second only to recovering the Golan Heights from Israel.
One obstacle could be a UN tribunal set up after the 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, which could seek to prosecute Syrian officials, setting the stage for a diplomatic standoff.
Obama, unlike McCain, has backed dialogue with Syria, saying this could help stabilise the region and better secure Israel.—Reuters
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