WASHINGTON, Nov 3: US air raids inside Pakistan will continue whether the next occupant of the White House is a Republican or a Democrat.

There seems to be a consensus in Washington that whenever US intelligence sources learn about the presence of a senior Al Qaeda or Taliban leader in a certain area, US forces in Afghanistan launch air attacks on that target.

A US ground attack, like the one in September, is unlikely to be repeated. But even that could change if the Americans learn that Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri or Mullah Omar were hiding at a particular place.

Both Republicans and Democrats will help Pakistan get economic assistance from the International Monetary Fund because they do not want an economic meltdown in a country seen as crucial for protecting US interests in the Muslim world.

However, neither a Republican nor a Democratic administration will provide direct economic assistance to Pakistan before it concludes an agreement with the IMF.

The general feeling in Washington is that Pakistan needs strict economic discipline to survive the current financial crisis and an agreement with the IMF can help achieve this target.

There is also an obvious lack of trust, both in Republican and Democratic camps, in the new Pakistani government, especially in financial matters. On other issues, there are major differences between Barack Obama, a Democrat, and John McCain, a Republican.

If Senator Obama wins on Tuesday, his administration will seek greater engagement with the democratic forces in Pakistan. Senator McCain’s administration will also want to maintain good ties with the Democratic government in Islamabad but it will seek to further strengthen existing ties between the military establishments of the two countries.

An Obama administration will work with the US Senate for the approval of a bipartisan bill that promises $15 billion US economic assistance over a period of 10 years and $1 billion for strengthening democracy.

The Obama administration will continue US military assistance to Pakistan but will tie it to Islamabad’s performance in the war on terror. It will also require the military not to topple an elected government if it wants to continue to receive US financial assistance.

A McCain administration will also require Pakistan to play an effective role in the war against terror but will not tie US aid to an assurance from the military that it will allow the continuation of democracy in the country.

The McCain administration will also continue President Bush’s current policy towards Afghanistan which blames Pakistan for most of the troubles in that country and avoids criticising the Karzai administration.

An Obama administration will bring more pressure on the Karzai government for internal reforms and for controlling the drug trade that finances the Taliban movement.

But it will focus on the presence of Al Qaeda and Taliban militants in Fata and want Pakistan to weed out their safe havens or face the consequences.

The future US administration – whether Republican or Democrat – would not be averse to holding direct talks with the Taliban but would not do so until the Taliban show a real desire to sever their ties to Al Qaeda.

The Americans want to isolate Al Qaeda from the Taliban and then focus on eradicating Al Qaeda, which they see as a greater threat to their global interests than the Taliban.

An Obama administration will send more troops to Afghanistan because of the fear that like in Iraq, the US could also lose the Afghan war.

A McCain administration will also send more troops to Afghanistan but for a different reason. Senator McCain believes that the Americans already have an upper hand in Afghanistan and more troops can assure a US victory.

Whether the next occupant of the White House is a Democrat or a Republican, Washington will continue to bring pressure on Pakistan to change its attitude towards India.

The Americans want to convince Pakistan that their real enemy is not India but the militancy that threatens to tear the country apart.

The future US administration will also seek greater assurance from Pakistan that there will be no proliferation of its nuclear weapons. It would like to be assured that instability within the country will not enable the militants access to nuclear weapons.

The future US administration will also seek more information from Pakistan on the safety of its nuclear assets, focusing on removing religious elements within the nuclear establishment as the Americans fear that such elements have natural tendency to support militants.