Oil may touch $200/barrel by 2030

Published November 7, 2008

LONDON, Nov 6: Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the Financial Times said on Wednesday quoting International Energy Agency report due next week.

The developed world’s energy watchdog has doubled its long-term price expectation from last year’s $108 a barrel for 2030 and assumes oil prices will rebound from today’s $60-$70 a barrel to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015.

Output from the world’s oil fields is declining at a natural rate of 9 per cent, the IEA found, following the most comprehensive review of its kind. This decline rate is curtailed to 6.7 per cent when current investments to boost production are made. However, even with such investments, the decline rate worsens significantly to 8.6 per cent by 2030. The declining rates are steeper than the industry had previously assumed. They are also slightly steeper than an earlier draft of the report because the IEA has expanded the study to 800 oil fields, adding 250 smaller fields.

If the IEA’s predictions come true then Pakistan which is hoping to save about $7 billion from its budgeted oil import bill of $13 billion for the current financial year following the steep fall in the world oil prices from $147 a barrel in June to $60 currently is expected once again to see its budget coming under severe pressure from the oil bill by July next.

Opinion

Editorial

E-governance
Updated 10 Jan, 2025

E-governance

Wishing for a viable e-governance system seems like a pipe dream when stable internet connectivity is not guaranteed.
Khuzdar rampage
Updated 10 Jan, 2025

Khuzdar rampage

Authorities must explain how terrorists were able to commandeer the area for eight hours.
Beyond wheelchairs
10 Jan, 2025

Beyond wheelchairs

THE KP government’s Rs370m assistance programme for persons with disabilities is a positive step, not only in ...
Taking cover
Updated 09 Jan, 2025

Taking cover

IT is unfortunate that, instead of taking ownership of important decisions, our officials usually seem keener to ...
A living hell
09 Jan, 2025

A living hell

WHAT Donald Trump does domestically when he enters the White House in just under two weeks is frankly the American...
A right denied
09 Jan, 2025

A right denied

DESPITE citizens possessing the constitutional and legal right to access it, federal ministries are failing to...