SEOUL: Taciturn North Korea will dangle its nuclear threat to ensure a place on Barack Obama’s agenda and the best the US president-elect can hope is to contain Pyongyang’s atomic ambitions, not end them, analysts said.
The one thing Obama appears willing to consider, and which analysts say North Korean leader Kim Jong-il prizes most of all, is the first direct talks with a US president.
The impoverished state has spent the best part of two decades goading US presidents into handing over billions of dollars to curtail, but never actually end, its nuclear programme.
This week it objected to having nuclear samples removed from its country for testing, which the United States says is part of an agreement the North reached with five regional powers that is meant to lead to eventual dismantlement.
This latest snag has the potential to drag on until Obama takes office in January and force the new president to decide whether, for the sake of keeping diplomacy moving, to give in to Pyongyang’s strong-arm tactics, analysts said.
They said the military threat is the only real bargaining chip Kim has, without risking his grip on power, to wring concessions from the outside world and he is unlikely to dare give up nuclear weapons no matter what Obama does.
“It negotiates to keep the relationship (with the United States) from tipping to all out war,” said Brian Myers, a professor at the South’s Dongseo University who is an expert in North Korea’s state propaganda.
Secretive North Korea’s tactics could be even harder to read because of uncertainty about the health of Kim, thought to have suffered a stroke in August.
Fears about his health raised questions about who is making decisions concerning the North’s nuclear arms programme.
All-out peace
Myers said the North’s leaders need the United States as an enemy to justify their “military first” policy that has bankrupted the state but keeps them in power, saying it would be political suicide to disarm in exchange for massive aid.
“But at the same time it continues making provocations to prevent the relationship from tipping to all-out peace. This is just as dangerous for the regime,” he said.
Obama should expect the North Korea to use its time-tested strategy of driving wedges between allies and raising tensions to such a level that it becomes a pressing security concern.
“North Korea doesn’t want to be the top policy concern of the US administration because that is too dangerous. But it always wants to stay somewhere in the top five,” said a diplomatic source in Seoul familiar with the North.
Obama has offered his support for deals reached by the Bush administration that gave isolated North Korea aid and better diplomatic standing in exchange for taking apart its plant that makes arms-grade plutonium and agreeing to allow inspectors to check claims it made about its atomic inventory.
But he has broken from Bush by saying he is open to direct talks with leaders of countries hostile to the United States, such as the North’s Kim.
Analysts said at best Obama could sway the North to abandon its ageing Yongbyon nuclear plant, but he would be hard pressed to have Pyongyang give up its fissile material or halt plans to develop another path to nuclear weapons by enriching uranium, which it can do away from the prying eyes of spy satellites.—Reuters
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