THE capital of the North-West Frontier Province may be less vulnerable than it was, say five months ago, when militants lurking around in the tribal regions from southern fringes to the southeast, west and northwestern borderline, were menacingly poised to march in.

The landscape, in both strategic and physical sense, has changed much since then but the spectre of a militant irruption continues to haunt Peshawarites day in and day out.

The semi-autonomous Darra Adamkhel, the fabled arms manufacturing town astride the Indus Highway to the south of Peshawar, has been largely cleared of militants. The strategic road connecting Peshawar with Karachi is now open.

Bara, a sub-district of Khyber region, from where armed vigilantes of Mangal Bagh’s Lashkar-i-Islam made regular forays into Peshawar, has been neutralised, though the adjacent Jamrud sub-district is fast turning into another militant redoubt, threatening not only the supply route to Afghanistan but also Peshawar itself.

Militants in Bajaur tribal region, to the west of Peshawar, are on the retreat, while they are being squeezed in Mohmand, to the northwest, from three sides after this week’s operation by security forces.

In territorial terms, say analysts, the militants have lost much of the ground they had been holding so far and this alone should have given Peshawarites the comfort of enjoying a sounder sleep.

Far from it, their nightmare has grown longer and in some ways even scarier. Kidnappings have registered a phenomenal increase. From January till last week, there have been 124 reported cases of kidnapping, including 60 cases of kidnapping for ransom.

This figure does not include countless cases of abduction that have not been reported to the police, largely due to loss of faith in government agencies. This has led people to negotiate the release of loved ones on their own, often ending in payment of huge ransoms.

And such kidnappings might still have been treated as routine crime by those living in cosy, barricaded surroundings had there not been a surge in assassinations and kidnappings of foreign diplomats and aid workers.

Beginning in February, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, Tariq Azizuddin, was kidnapped from Jamrud sub-district of Khyber, just a stone’s throw away from Peshawar, while en route to Kabul.

He and his driver ended up in South Waziristan. Months later their release was made possible after payment of a heavy ransom and release of some militants from government custody.

It was not a one-off incident. On Aug 26, the vehicle of Lynn Tracy, Principal Officer at the US Consulate in Peshawar, was fired at in the University Town, another posh area favoured by western diplomats and foreign aid workers. She survived the attack.

In September, the Afghan ambassador-designate to Pakistan, Abdul Khaliq Farahi, was abducted from the posh and upscale Hayatabad town in broad daylight, while on his way back home after work. His driver was killed. The whereabouts of Mr Farahi remain a mystery, though officials had initially claimed that those holding him had demanded a ransom and release of their comrades in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The real shockers came in rather quick succession. An American aid worker employed by a USAID-funded project for development in the tribal region was shot dead along with his driver in the University Town, while leaving for office.

The very next day, militants kidnapped a junior Iranian diplomat after killing his police escort in Hayatabad on one of the main roads during the usual morning rush hours.

Friday’s incident of firing on a Japanese journalist and his Peshawar-based Afghan fixer is another story altogether, apparently involving illegal crossing from Hayatabad into the adjoining tribal area. However, it too reflects the fast deteriorating security environment in the provincial capital.

Last week’s rather embarrassing incident of looting of wheat and military supplies meant for Afghanistan and Nato in Jamrud tribal region, neighbouring Peshawar, should also be seen in the same light.

The World Food Program (WFP) has complained that 900 tons of humanitarian food and oil supplies for the poor in Afghanistan and Pakistan worth $1 million have been looted, mostly in the NWFP.

What has caused this dramatic surge in kidnappings and high-profile assassinations? Government and security officials acknowledge they have been anticipating the phenomenon following the launch of military operations in Darra Adamkhel, Bajaur and now Mohmand.

“They are reacting and they are reacting in a manner that is causing us not just national but international embarrassment,” one official admitted. But whether such anticipation led to an effective security plan is a question many analysts are asking.

That the police is under-manned, poorly equipped and suffering from a degree of demoralisation is just one aspect of the worsening law and order situation in Peshawar.

Reluctance by other security forces to chip in with men and material to beef up security, owing to their own growing engagements in Bajaur and Mohmand, and the level of threat perception to Peshawar, as perceived by other state security agencies, may also be factors in effectively dealing with the situation.

Little wonder then, barricades, barriers and checkpoints are emerging on almost all main roads leading into Peshawar, including Hayatabad, owing to its proximity to the tribal area, reflecting what some security official call a ‘bunker mentality’.

There are, however, some officials who believe that a marriage of convenience between militants and hardened criminals, some of them backed by elements from outside the country, has morphed into something that would require not only the use of effective force to dislodge them from their remaining strongholds but also effective policing based on criminal intelligence. “Right now, criminal intelligence is a zilch,” commented a senior official.

For instance, the Criminal Investigation Department (CID), which once served as the bulwark against organised criminal networks, has lost its direction due to years of neglect.

Intelligence agencies, officials grumble, have also yet to overcome their caginess about sharing much-needed intelligence with security forces, chiefly the police, at the tactical level to enable them to go after cells that, they fear, are likely to mushroom as militants lose control of areas and melt into tribal, rural and urban areas.

“This is the new challenge and new threat perception that is most likely to emerge as operations against militants in the tribal area continue the way they are,” a senior government official said.

“This may not happen any time soon. We have to realise that we are into it for a long haul and, therefore, must put our act and resources together. Complacency at this stage is not only going to be counter-productive but also dangerous,” the official added.