Brutal week for Wall Street

Published November 16, 2008

NEW YORK, Nov 15: It was another brutal week for Wall Street but with a glimmer of hope that sparked fresh talk about whether the stock market had finally hit a “bottom” that will allow a new rally phase to start.

Despite the heavy losses, some analysts expressed optimism that the market was able to hold above key lows for the indexes in October, and said this could be a sign that selling pressures have been exhausted.

Analysts pointed to market action Thursday, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed losses of some 300 points to stage a powerful rally of more than 550 points.

The market action may go down as the final low of the market mess that began a year ago, said Bob Dickey, a technical analyst at RBC Wealth Management.

It was the fourth test of the low zone in five weeks, and by most technical measures was also the most meaningful ... There was no apparent reason for the market to rally, which actually helps in the analysis, because it means that the markets have most likely seen an exhaustion of the selling pressure.

Still, in the week to Friday, Dow index slid 4.99 per cent to 8,497.31. The tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged 7.92 per cent to 1,516.85 and the broad-market Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 6.17 per cent to end at 873.29.

Some said it was too soon to say the bottom had been reached.

So many analysts are saying that (Thursday) represented a successful test of the intraday lows and probably marked capitulation, said Fred Dickson at DA Davidson & Co.

We will withhold judgment on that question until we make sure that having recorded some gains, traders decide to take profit, starting the familiar cycle over again.

Linda Deussel at Federated Investors said the market is likely to remain under pressure for some time but does not see further heavy declines.

This may not be the time to jump into stocks with both feet, she said.

But we strongly believe that a bottoming process is under way. We remind investors that the lion’s share of the first-year gains in a new bull come in the first few months. The bond market remained firm.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell to 3.750 per cent from 3.780 per cent a week earlier, and than on the 30-year Treasury bond eased to 4.230 per cent from 4.261 per cent. The lower yields reflect higher bond prices.

In the coming week, the market is likely to consider any actions by the weekend summit of the Group of 20, an emergency meeting of leaders on the global financial crisis.

It turns out I haven’t been pessimistic enough, said Scott Anderson, economist at Wells Fargo.

The negative feedback from the bank credit losses, tighter credit conditions, and worsening economy have been more difficult to overcome than I expected.—AFP

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