BANGKOK: Thailand’s government will struggle to survive protests crippling the country, with analysts saying it will have to walk a fine line to prevent either a coup or a bloody end to the turmoil.

Last Sunday protesters called for a “final battle” to oust the government, but amid reports that the disruptive six-month-long movement was running out of money and losing support, few people expected the drama that followed.

Then on Tuesday thousands of supporters of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) seized the main Suvarnabhumi airport and forced its closure, repeating that feat at the smaller Don Mueang airport a day later.

Despite global concerns over the shuttering of a country’s major airports, the army has refused the role of enforcer and police appear powerless against protesters, who drape themselves in yellow clothes to show loyalty to the king.

“The tense situation is going to come to a head over the next few days,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Chulalongkorn University, said.

“The government is standing its ground, the ‘Yellow Shirts’ won’t budge, the army won’t move, police may not get the job done.” The PAD launched their campaign in May, accusing the government elected in December of running the country on behalf of exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup.

The protest movement was also behind that putsch.

Analysts say powerful backing from elements in the palace and the military who also despised populist Thaksin have allowed the PAD to go virtually unpunished, despite the damage being inflicted on the country.

Army chief General Anupong Paojinda has put himself squarely on the fence so far, calling on Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to hold new elections while urging the PAD to disperse, but refusing to take any action.

This puts Somchai who refused the call to dissolve parliament in a bind.

Given Thailand’s history of bloody protest violence, removing the entrenched, armed protesters at the airports without the help of the better-equipped army will likely end in violent clashes.

“If it is not successful then the military is waiting to intervene,” said international relations analyst Panitan Wattanayagorn.

Which is exactly what the PAD wants, says Robert Broadfoot of the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy.

“What the ‘Yellow Shirts’ are saying is you get a coup and we’re out of there, we just don’t want the current government,” he said, adding that the group was trying to return Thailand to a “coalition of elite”. The PAD have said they want to end the one-man one-vote system and replace it with one where unelected representatives play a role.

A court decision expected next week, however, could dissolve the ruling party and give Somchai a face-saving way out.

The Constitutional Court is due on Tuesday to wrap up a vote fraud case against Somchai’s ruling party and two of its coalition partners, which will likely see the parties dissolved and leaders including Somchai banned from politics.

Then there is a chance of a deal in behind-the-scenes talks but it is a prospect that looks increasingly unlikely as PAD leaders vow to fight to the death.

Another event that Panitan said could be a turning point is the birthday address at the end of the coming week by deeply revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

If the airports are still closed he could imply a solution in his speech, although he has only waded into politics twice before in his 62-year reign and then only when turmoil erupted into widespread bloodshed.

His address also comes as the PAD openly claim to have the support of his wife Queen Sirikit, who attended the funeral of a PAD protester killed in clashes with police on Oct 7, and donated money to people injured that day.

But the court ruling and the king’s address are days away, and as the airports stay closed it costs Thailand billions of dollars in lost tourism and business revenue every day.

In the meantime, Thitinan fears, widespread clashes might break out between rival groups in the kingdom.

Pro-government Thaksin loyalists have called for a rally in Bangkok on Sunday. They drape themselves in red to differentiate themselves from the PAD.

“My fear is that all roads are increasingly leading to the ‘Red Shirts’ ...They have been peaceful, orderly, patient, (but) when they come out their wrath will be ferocious,” he said.—AFP