DAKAR: Guinea, the world’s biggest exporter of bauxite, has become the latest African state to suffer a breakdown in democratic rule and is now facing an uncertain political future which could descend into violence.
A group of military officers, which does not include the country’s most senior older generals but has representatives from several units, has moved to seize power after the death on Monday of veteran President Lansana Conte.
They announced the suspension of the constitution and the government and formed a junta “to save the people” calling itself the National Council for Democracy and Development which has promised elections in two years time.
The junta blames the government, which includes members of Conte’s old entourage, for widespread corruption and the grinding poverty suffered by the majority of Guineans despite their nation’s mineral riches extracted by foreign companies.
But this move overrides Guinea’s constitution which foresees National Assembly President Aboubacar Sompare taking over as interim head of state to organise elections in two months.
Sompare, who has opposed the coup along with Prime Minister Ahmed Tidiane Souare and armed forces chief of staff, General Diarra Camara, has appealed to the international community to prevent the military takeover from succeeding.
The pro-coup forces control the country’s biggest military base, camp Alpha Yaya Diallo, next to the international airport, and the national radio and TV headquarters. They appear to be moving freely around the capital and have faced no serious efforts to confront or dislodge them so far by loyalist forces.
What happens now?
Armed Forces chief Camara says he has tried to persuade the coup leaders to respect constitutional order, but negotiation efforts do not appear to have succeeded.
National Assembly chief Sompare says he is in hiding after pro-coup soldiers searched his home. Prime Minister Souare has rejected the coup junta’s assertion that his government is “dissolved” but is also believed to be in hiding.
There appears to be a standoff, with neither side wanting to risk bloodshed. The coup junta, which appears to be militarily stronger, has prohibited demonstrations.
But the situation is fragile. If violence breaks out, this could trigger looting and mayhem in volatile Guinea, which has seen bloody strikes, riots and army mutinies in recent years.
This could be aggravated by generational and ethnic splits within the military and political establishment. Young officers resent what they see as senior officers amassing riches while lower ranks suffer poor pay and conditions.
The two sides could also try to reach a compromise on the composition of a transition government and an election date.
The international community – the United Nations, African Union, European Union and United States – opposes any non-constitutional change and may sanction the junta if it fully takes over the country.
Who are the coup leaders?
The 32-member National Council for Democracy and Development announced on national radio and TV has 26 senior and middle-ranking officers and six civilians. But it excludes Guinea’s older generation of generals.
Its most senior military figure is Gen Mamadou ‘Toto’ Camara, head of the land army. Also prominent is Col Sekouba Konate, the commander of the Alpha Yaya Diallo base, the country’s biggest where the elite foreign-trained airborne battalion (BATA) is based. The junta also includes at least one officer from the “red berets” presidential guard.
Also listed as a member is 2nd Lt Claude Pivi, who was one of the leaders of a violent army mutiny over pay in May at the Alpha Yaya Diallo camp, in which several people were killed.The junta spokesman is a young captain, Moussa Dadis Camara, who appeared on state TV in uniform and wearing a red beret.
The coup junta has quickly tried to tap into popular discontent over the rule of Conte and the civilian political elite, who are widely viewed as corrupt.
In their first statement on Tuesday announcing suspension of the constitution and dissolution of the government, the coup leaders justified their action by referring to “corruption, anarchy and impunity” in the state.
On Wednesday, the junta called its takeover action “a civic act ... to save a people in distress”. It said it had no wish to remain in power for ever and promised to hold “free, credible and transparent elections at the end of December, 2010”.
What is at stake?
Guinea boasts around a third of all known reserves of bauxite, the ore used to make aluminium, and also has the potential to be a major source of iron ore. It has been a magnet for foreign mining investment in West Africa.
International companies like Alcoa, Rio Tinto Alcan and Russia’s RUSAL have multi-billion-dollar projects in Guinea, which also has gold and diamond deposits.
Their operations have not so far been affected, but if fighting or social upheaval breaks out, and spreads to mining areas, this could cause disruption to extraction and transport of the ore, which is carried to the coast by railway.
Beyond the security risk, if a military junta takes power and faces international economic sanctions, it may seek to squeeze mining operations to obtain additional revenue.
Under the now deceased Conte, an army general himself who had ruled with an iron fist since 1984, Guinea managed to maintain relative stability in a region racked by civil wars.
Without a deal that guarantees a stable government and free elections, the country could tip into turmoil and conflict.—Reuters
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