ISLAMABAD, Jan 17: Things are not going to change radically during Barack Obama’s administration; but only shift in emphasis and change of ‘atmosphere.

British scholar Prof (Dr) Anatol Lieven, who teaches War Studies at King’s College, London, gave this short answer in his lecture on ‘Obama’s administration and the war on terror’ at the Institute of Strategic Studies here on Saturday.

However, the scholar said, in the post-Mumbai scenario Obama might be pro-active in ‘crisis prevention’ to lessen tensions and would focus on India and Pakistan to engage on talks on the Kashmir problem and press for resumption of the disrupted peace dialogue between the two countries, if the terrorists’ do not gain the ability to undermine it.

In fact, in case of another terrorist outrage of the order of Mumbai, against the US, or in Europe, America would hit Pakistan hard, because the Americans still believe that both Osama bin Laden and his lieutenant, Ayman Al-Zawahiri were hiding somewhere in Pakistan.

Expanding on this theme, Prof Lieven also disclosed what President Bush had said this in so many words to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani: “Not really that America would bomb Pakistan, but the US could impose economic sanctions which would be disastrous in the present economic predicament of Pakistan.”

He counseled that presently Pakistan, for its own security reasons, needed to offer greater cooperation to the US in the ‘war on terror’, a term which the scholar did not like using.

Prof Lieven wove a matrix around Israel attack on Gaza as well as around Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, Russia and Syria, saying that Americans were silent about Israeli aggression because of powerful Jewish lobbies and this would not improve the US image in Muslim countries. Nevertheless, he expected US to engage with Iran with close cooperation from Russia.

Many reasons were attributed for not expecting overnight change in American policies after the new US President took over on January 20; one was that America had gone financially broke after pursuing the costly wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

One more reason he cited was Hillary Clinton’s appointment as the Secretary of State. She still had presidential ambitions and would not countenance riling the American public opinion.

Prof Lieven is in the process of writing a book on Pakistan a country he has visited many times and was also stationed at Islamabad as correspondent of The Times, London. He complimented Pakistan for its enormous power of resilience. He debunked the theory that Pakistan would become a failed state.

Answering a question, he mentioned President Asif Ali Zardari’s forward approach in moving the peace process between India and Pakistan but said India was lukewarm.

IISS Director-General, Dr Tanvir Ahmad Khan, in his introduction to Professor Lieven’s lecture said Pakistanis were expecting to see change, which had been jeopardized by Israel’s terrorist attack in Gaza.