THREE cheers for the government for solving the urea crisis …but in a novel way - by delaying the import till such time the chances of application of last bag of urea on wheat crop remained alive, and has now stocked over 50,000 tons at Gwadar port with the same quantity on the seas.

During the next week or so, the market would be flooded with urea and the government would claim solving the crisis by abundant supply at official rate.

At present, when most of the crop in Sindh is 75 to 80 days and in Punjab 60 days old and the Extension Wings of the agriculture departments in both the provinces, educating the farmers about application of weedicides, the entire government machinery is busy in transporting urea and taking it to selling points. In its enthusiasm to “solve the urea crisis,” it has completely ignored the fact that feeding urea at this stage would be harmful for the wheat crop.

After about 60 to 70 days, wheat crop attains the required vegetative growth – for which urea is applied. After this stage, application of urea makes the plant succulent and vulnerable to pest attack – normally aphid. Since most of the crop in Punjab is in the high humidity zone – from Jhelum down to Sahiwal – chances of such attack only increases with excessive vegetative growth.

Another danger that application of urea at this stage could pose is that it could turn the stem top heavy. Since the application of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), which strengthens the plants, remained minimum throughout the country because of price factor, a top-heavy wheat crop might not be able to withstand high velocity winds that hit Punjab during March and April.

Ignoring both these crucial factors, the Punjab government has created media hype around fertiliser arrival at Gwadar. It has formed a committee to meet daily to monitor arrival and transportation and has dispatched provincial secretary to quicken the transportation of fertiliser. Hardly a day passes without the chief minister holding meeting and issuing some statements about urea arrival and the provincial agriculture minister holding press conferences, announcing how much of urea has arrived and how much is in the pipeline.

All this is happening when workers of the provincial Extension Wing are advising wheat growers to avoid using urea “at this stage as it could be harmful for the crop.” The dichotomy of the approach is evident: the government wants to get political mileage out of fertiliser arrival and the professionals of the Extension Wing want to save the crop.

Most of the farmers fear that given the “cartelisation to the core” of fertiliser business, they might still not be able to get urea at officially declared price of Rs660. Their fears are largely based on the perception that a mafia like situation exists in the fertiliser business, which has overtaken the entire system – stockists, hoarders and manufactures now rule the roost, with the government being a helpless spectator.

They have squeezed dealers’ margin to the extent that they are now leaving the business and clogging the distribution system. The dealers, who actually sell and supply fertiliser at the village level, get a profit of Rs10 per bag. It is after making 50-days advance payment, bearing unloading charges and shop expenses. This profit margin has actually pushed many shopkeepers out of business. They have been on record demanding a profit margin of 10 per cent to keep the business profitable, but stockists, hoarders and manufactures trio has refused to oblige.

On the other hand, profit margin of the manufacturers and stockists has skyrocketed during the last few months – international price of urea has dipped from $800 per ton to $240 per ton. The trio is pocketing the entire margin, without sharing it with those who actually sell it.

Unfortunately, the dealers are also target of official wrath when it wants to ensure price. This year, so far, the Punjab government has registered 1,325 FIRs against defaulting dealers. But no one from the official side is ready to get the terms of trade right, because the “private sector,” is in-charge.

The exploitation within the system goes on un-abated and farmers fear that supply chain might not be smoothening up even with over 100,000 tons urea hitting the market in the next week or so. There will be controlled release, which would keep the price up and the government would be fighting a lost battle to control price as more dealers opt out.

This year there was a unique chance for the country to get a bumper crop, beating previous record. The country may not get so many positive factors for many years as it got this season – acreage figure touched over 22 million, major part was sown in November, timely rains in December and fertiliser prices dipping by 200 to 500 per cent.

Though it is too early to predict the final outcome, farmers think that the advantage has been lost to great extent due to urea crisis at the crucial stage of the crop. During December, the most crucial month for wheat crop, urea availability was a paltry 3,75,000 tons against the demand of 5,53,000 tons. It could prove to be a crucial factor if the country fails to achieve anything less than 28 million tons of wheat.

Another problem is that too many brooks are involved in the business from the government side. The ministry of industries imports fertiliser, food, agriculture and livestock ministry looks after the crop and distributes urea, the TCP (ministry of commerce) procures some of the commodities, the Utility Stores Corporation sells urea and the provincial Extension Wings monitor fertiliser sale and has to achieve production targets. With so many ministries and bureaucrats involved in the business, confusion, delays and mafia-like situation has become a general practice.