GENEVA, Jan 28: Two years of global financial and economic meltdown could leave over 50 million more people unemployed by the end of 2009, risking social unrest, the International Labour Organisation warned on Wednesday.

New estimates indicate that “global unemployment in 2009 could increase over 2007 by a range of 18 million to 30 million workers, and more than 50 million if the situation continues to deteriorate,” the ILO said in a statement.

That could raise the world’s jobless total to 198 million, or 230 million people in the worst case scenario, according to the figures in the ILO’s report, “Global Employment Trends 2009”.

In 2007, some 179 million people were out of work, according to the report.

“The ILO’s message is realistic, not alarmist,” Director-General Juan Somavia told reporters.

“We have to assume that we are now facing a global jobs crisis.” Officials were more inclined to a middle range scenario of 30 million job losses for 2007-2009, raising the worldwide unemployment tally to 210 million.

Labour experts here believe the lowest scenario has already been overtaken.

That could propel the global unemployment rate to an average of 6.5 per cent, or 7.1 per cent in the worst case, for this year, against 5.7 per cent in 2007.

The report indicated that 190 million people were jobless by the end of 2008 after 11 million jobs were shed around the world last year alone, based on a combination of official national data and estimates.

If that figure were confirmed, the economic crisis could claim two to four times more jobs this year alone under the ILO’s forecast.

Somavia urged the Group of 20 leading industrial and emerging economies to examine measures to boost “productive” investments create jobs and bolster social protection, on top of helping financial institutions.

IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn on Monday criticised the G20, saying they had made little progress in fighting the global financial crisis.

Pointing to growing unease about job security, Somavia said: “I think that social unrest is here already.

“That’s why the emphasis we’re giving to this crisis is -- please don’t forget the people.” France was bracing for major disruption to transport and public services on Thursday in a nationwide strike called to protest government policy on coping with the financial crisis.

Fears about the impact of the economic crisis were also the centre of the World Social Forum in Brazil, where about 100,000 people are expected to attend the counterweight to the forum of business and political leaders in Davos, Switzerland this week.The ILO figures indicated that developed economies would be hit the hardest with the fastest rise in unemployment rates, from an average of 5.7 per cent in 2007 up to 6.6-7.9 per cent in 2009.

The report estimated that last year the developed economies and European Union failed to create jobs in 2008, while unemployment picked up sharply to 6.2 per cent, ending five consecutive years of decline.

But East Asia, which had the lowest regional unemployment rate at 3.5 per cent in 2007, was forecast to experience a jump to 4.5-5.5 per cent in a year.

The crisis could also push another 200 million workers into extreme poverty as they eke out a living in informal, underpaid and unstable work, especially in Africa and South Asia, the ILO predicted.

That would swell the ranks of the “working poor” to 1.4 billion, just under half of all the world’s working population.—AFP