Neelum River (Indian Kishan Ganga) enters Azad Kashmir from the occupied Kashmir at a distance of about 200 kilo metres east of Muzaffarabad and travels in a general westward direction.
Near Muzaffarabad, the river turns sharply toward south and joins the Jhelum River. This location has been the focus of studies for past three decades for development of power potential of the Neelum River.
A 963 Mega Watts (MW) hydropower can be developed if the Neelum and the Jhelum rivers were connected by constructing a 32 kilo meters long tunnel. A detailed feasibility study confirmed the economic and technical viability of the Neelum Jhelum Hydel Project (NJHP).
Design and technical specifications were finalized in 1997 and WAPDA selected this project in 2001 for implementation under its Vision 2025. In the meantime, India also started pursuing a plan to divert the Neelum water for its own hydropower generation.
Fearing that the Indian plan may ultimately reduce the Neelum water flowing into Azad Kashmir, Pakistan intends to expedite the implementation of the NJHP. By completing the NJHP before the Indian diversion plan, it is hoped India and the international community can be persuaded to accept Pakistan's historic right on the entire water of the Neelum as provided in the Indus Basin Water Treaty.
But the hope is somewhat unrealistic. The NJHP is too large and complex project for a fast track or expeditious implementation. The estimated cost and construction time of the NJHP are $1.5 billion and eight years respectively.
The project involves huge underground works which are spread over 35 kilo meters long stretch of a hilly terrain. Even with the best intention and the greatest will power, it will be very difficult to complete the NJHP in less than eight years or before the Indian diversion plan.
The complexity of the NJHP would impede the effective and efficient utilization of the required construction machinery and other resources at many underground locations. A brief description of four main parts of the NJHP gives an idea of the complexity of this mega project.
HEAD WORKS: Head Works, located on the Neelum , consist of a 45 meter high RCC dam, a spillway and a 160 meter long diversion tunnel. The dam will create a small water reservoir, raising the water level to 40 meters above the river bed. These Head Works form a relatively simple part of the NJHP and can be completed by Pakistani consultants and contractors in less than three years.
POWER TUNNEL: A 32 kilo meters long Power Tunnel will take off from the Head Works and terminate in the Jhelum. It includes an intake and a de-sanding basin along the left abutment of the Head Works, an underpass to cross the Jhelum, a surge chamber and other auxiliary works.
The Power Tunnel will deliver the water from the Head Works to a power plant and then discharge the water into Jhelum. Power Tunnel will form a short cut between the rivers and it is the largest as well as potentially the most complex part of the NJHP. A dependence on the foreign expertise for constructing the Power Tunnel seems unavoidable.
HYDROPOWER STATION: The Hydropower Station comprises an underground powerhouse, a conventional switchyard, a system of access tunnels and access shafts, cable tunnels and miscellaneous civil works.
The powerhouse will divide the Power Tunnel into an upstream head race or high pressure tunnel and a downstream tail race or low pressure tunnel. The Hydropower Station is another large and complex part of the project, requiring considerable foreign expertise for its construction.
POWER PLANT: The Power Plant of 963 MW includes generating units, 500 KV transformers, HV switchgear, 500 KV transmission line and miscellaneous mechanical and electrical auxiliaries.
The services of foreign manufacturers will be required for the design and manufacture of about 70 percent of the Power Plant. The NJHP is a far more complex project, because of its underground works, than Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project.
If Pakistan chooses a small hydropower scheme on Neelum, it can be implemented before Indian diversion plan and will help Pakistan to confirm its historic right on the Neelum water.
Fortunately, a small hydropower scheme of about 60 MW (a Secondary NJHP) can very easily be carved out of the NJHP as its fifth and independent part. The construction of the 963 MW NJHP and the 60 MW Secondary NJHP can proceed simultaneously. The 963 MW NJHP will be a high head (about 400 meter) project as already planned and approved by WAPDA.
The 60 MW Secondary NJHP will be a medium head (about 40 meter) hydropower scheme and it will comprise a short pen stock and a power station. The Secondary NJHP will be relatively simple, small and low cost scheme, which can be easily commissioned within three years by a competent team of Pakistani consultants and contractors.
The implementation of 60 MW Secondary NJHP will require some modifications in the design of the diversion tunnel of the Head Works to convert it to a diversion cum power tunnel.
According to very rough calculations, the design discharge of the Secondary NJHP will be 200 cubic meters per second and in an average year it will generate 300 million Kilo Watt hour (KWh) and 150 million KWh, respectively before and after commissioning the 963 MW NJHP.
After the completion of the dam and the spillway of the Head Works, the diversion tunnel will be connected to a short pen stock which will supply water (at 40 meter head) from the Head Works to the 60 MW hydropower station located immediately downstream of the Head Works.
The estimated cost of the Secondary NJHP, including the cost of modifying the diversion tunnel as well as the cost of the pen stock and 60 MW hydropower station is about $20 million.
Assuming an energy price of four US cents per KWh, the Secondary NJHP will generate average annual revenue of $12 million and $6 million US dollars, respectively before and after commissioning the 963 MW NJHP.
After commissioning the 963 MW NJHP, the output of Secondary NJHP will decrease as it will then get only the water surplus to the requirements of the former and therefore, the economic viability of the 963 MW NJHP will not be affected.
Even the reduced revenue of $6 million is a good return from the additional investment. However, there is lot of scope for optimizing the Secondary NJHP to ensure its early completion and to improve its benefits.
Finally, as the site of the Head Works and the Secondary NJHP is located near the Line of Control, an involvement of foreign consultants and contractors in their implementation is not advisable, because it may create security problems which can cause delays. These works should be awarded on local competition basis to Pakistani organizations.
Alternatively, to expedite the implementation, a negotiated turn key contract may be awarded to a consortium of Pakistani contractors led by Frontier Works Organization (FWO), because FWO successfully completed the civil works of Units 9 and 10 (of 100 MW each) of Mangla Hydropower Station. In any case, besides FWO, there are a number of Pakistani contractors with reasonable experience who can implement the Secondary NJHP successfully.
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