AROUND 20 million migrant workers have returned to the Chinese countryside after failing to find work in the cities because of the economic downturn. The figure — greater than the population of Australia — is double a previous official estimate and will heighten the concerns of the Chinese authorities about maintaining stability.

It came a day after the government warned that 2009 would be “possibly the toughest year” for economic development in China since the turn of the century. Chen Xiwen, director at the Office of the Central Leading Group on Rural Work says that a government survey showed that 15.3 per cent of an estimated 130 million rural migrants to the cities had returned home jobless. Adding in new entrants to the rural labour market gave a total of around 26 million unemployed and potentially restive people in the countryside. Some economists believe this is an underestimate and say the real figure could ultimately reach 40 million.

The figures do not include the urban unemployed or students. Last month the government said that almost nine million urban residents registered as jobless in December and the first increase in the urban unemployment rate (to 4.2 per cent) after five years of successive falls.

Many believe the true rate is far higher. Academics have also estimated that 1.5 million of this year`s graduates could fail to find work.

There is a considerable number of rural migrants who are unemployed. After they return to villages, what about their incomes? How will they live? That`s a new factor concerning social stability this year. Local officials have been told to handle unrest with care and go to the frontline to explain to and persuade the public.

China sees tens of thousands of “mass incidents” each year and the authorities have issued a string of warnings to officials about the risks of the economic downturn exacerbating problems.

Mao Shoulong, a professor at Renmin University, said unrest often developed because there were not clear channels for expressing grievances and disadvantaged groups had no way to protect their rights and interests. But he added that the authorities had learned from experience. “They even try to hold direct dialogue with people and they are more cautious about using armed police,” he said.

China has around 750 million rural residents; more than the combined populations of the United States and European Union.

But growth in the countryside has lagged far behind the cities, with the rural-urban income gap expanding rapidly over the last two decades.
— The Guardian, London