GILGIT/HUNZA With polling only two days away, tough contests seem likely in the six constituencies of Gilgit and Hunza-Nagar districts in the first elections for the newly created Gilgit-Baltistan legislative assembly.

Electioneering for a total of 23 seats at stake for 33-seat house ended on Tuesday night after last-minute efforts by candidates and their supporters to lure voters by holding public rallies and corner meetings.

The capital city of Gilgit and its suburbs present a festive look with banners, hoardings, stickers and other publicity materials displayed on every building and public place.

The visit of top leaders of all major political parties to the area and the presence of mainstream print and electronic, which gave a substantial space and coverage to the election, brought the region into the limelight.

Political experts expect a shift in the voting trend, which has so far been based on lines of sects, clans, tribes and personalities.

The entry of new players in the fray has broken the two-party politics giving tough time to the traditional politicians. But independent observers see the Pakistan People's Party better placed to win, though not with a big margin. The people of the two populous districts still have the hangover of their love affair with the party's founder, hanged former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was the first Pakistani leader to lend a sympathetic ear to the miseries of the forsaken poor of Gilgit-Baltistan, especially the people of Hunza-Nagar by liberating them from a despotic rule of Mirs of the two former princely states. It was his party that gave them the right to franchise.

Pakistan People's Party, Pakistan Muslim League-N, PML-Q, Awami National Party, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Gilgit-Baltistan Democratic Alliance, Jamaat-i-Islami and a number of independents are vying for six seats of the two districts.

Religious parties, who were dominating the political scene in the '90s, have witnessed a sharp decline in their overall public support and vote bank. Nevertheless, they still have strong influence in Gilgit city and its adjacent areas.

The Gilgit district has a complex situation. The LA-1 Gilgit-I is considered to be very sensitive constituency which has witnessed sectarian violence in the recent past. This has also reflected in electoral politics in the past. But this time around the situation has totally changed with the intervention of new political parties.

There are four potential candidates in the constituency. However tough contest is expected between Raziuddin Rizvi, (Independent) and PML-N's Jaffarullah. PPP's Mohammad Musa is contesting from this constituency. Analysts see shifting of Musa from his traditional constituency LA-2, Gilgit-II to this constituency as a desperate move by the party to save its face. This can only increase the chances of his defeat. “If a leader is not confident of winning in his constituency, then there is no guarantee that he will win from an alien one,” said a PPP worker who requested not to be named.

The estimated population of the constituency is 56,641 and out of them there are 48,574 registered voters -- 28,322 male and 20,252 female who will cast their vote at 56 polling stations.

However, a neck-and-neck contest is expected in LA-2 Gilgit-II between PPP's Jamil Ahmed and Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman of PML-N, a lone outspoken member in the last assembly. Jamil Ahmed previously contested from the platform of JUI-F. In LA-2 Gilgit-II the estimated population is 64,573 and total registered voters are 61,753 with 37,628 male and 24,125 female and 82 polling stations.

The LA-3 Gilgit-III is giving an uncertain picture because PPP candidate Advocate Aftab Haider and MQM leader look like favourites but independent candidate Capt (retd) Shafi could give them a very tough time. PML-Q candidate Muhammed Sharif and ANP candidate Yawar Abbas are also running for the slot.The estimated population of the constituency is 69,395. The number of registered voters is 39,410. The number of male voters is 20,679 and that of female is 18,731 with 66 polling stations in the constituency.

A new powerful entrepreneur class who benefited from the border trade and commerce on the Karakoram Highway, tourism, timber trading, contracts, and transportation will play a pivotal role as a sizable number of them are contesting from different constituencies, such as Capt (retd) Hadi

Hussein, Jamil Ahmed, Kamil Jan, Mirza Hussein, Zulfiqar Murad and Mohammed Ali Akhter.

In LA-6 Hunza, for the first time, a large number of candidates are contesting the polls. Different factors including kinship-based politics, blame-games, Benazir Income Support Programme funds and pouring in of money by some candidates are shaping the new political scenario in the most developed and literate constituency. Tough contest is, however, expected between Wazir Baig (PPP), Kamil Jan (MQM) and Noor Muhammad of All Hunza Action Committee.

Wazir Baig appears to be a strong candidate as he is considered to be an upright and down to earth politician, has to his credit a number of development schemes he initiated during his last tenure. The visits of different ministers to Hunza may also boost his image. Former Chief Executive Ghazanfar's son Shehryar Khan does not have the chance of winning a seat as he has no roots among the new generation who have been disenchanted with the performance of his father. Majority of his traditional voters are now supporting either Kamil Jan or PML-Q's Rehmatullah Baig. The young banker is even facing tough time in his native town Karimabad.

Similarly, the MQM candidate has not left any stone unturned in filling the political vacuum created by the former representatives. However, political experts and conscious circles are concerned about the surprise entry of this new political force in the peaceful society given its reputation of alleged role in years of violence in Karachi.

Some rivals have accused MQM candidates of distributing money among village organisations and women's organisations to influence the election results and promised more money after winning the election.

Three independent candidates - Arif Hussain, Shahbaz Khan, Aziz Ahmed and Ijlal Hussain - are relatively new and have no substantial political or mass support. They may play as spoilers.

The total population of the constituency is estimated to be over 61,229. The number of total registered voters in Hunza is 33,936 with 17,174 male and 16,519 female.

The situation in LA-4 Nagar-I foreshadows a close contest between Sheikh Mushtaq Hussain, the son of the late Sheikh Ghulam Haider Najfi, and Muhammad Ali Akhtar of the PPP. Mr Akhtar, despite a poor performance in

his last tenure also enjoys the support of the federal government and can boast of the political package announced by his party and the Benazir Income Supports Programme. The population of the constituency is 29,603 and total registered voters is 21,204 - 10945 male and 10259 female.

In LA-5, Nagar-II the situation is, however, not as favourable for Zulfiqar Ali Murad, the ticket holder of PPP, where Kalbe Ali, the president of the Hunza-Nagar PPP chapter is also contesting as an independent candidate after failing to get the party ticket. Mirza Hussain of the PML-Q is said to get the benefit of the division in the PPP ranks. The population of Nagar-II constituency is 67,424 and registered voters are 13,664. The number of male voters is 7,198 and female 6,466 female.

Overall, it appears that PPP is set to win these elections because it has the advantage of being the ruling party. Taking into consideration the political realism of the political class and people, it can be said that people will not opt for a government in Gilgit-Baltistan which is opposed to ruling party in the country because it will harm their interests.

Coupled with this calculative rationality in politics, the “empowerment package”, administrative and finan cial support, BISP and recently announced incentives by the prime minister in Gilgit and Skardu will pave the way for a modest if not a landslide victory for the party.