I WAS watching an interesting debate on one of the international news channels about whether our planet would be able to sustain its burgeoning population. The West continues to show declines in population growth, while our part of the earth more than makes up for it.
From a global perspective, some of the statistics are startling when comparing different parts of the world. For instance, the number of births in India in a year is greater than the entire population of Australia.
The panel of experts highlighted a key trend when discussing the issue, namely the link between a nation's having a higher per capita income and fewer children. An American lady on the panel commented on Iran as having one of the best programmes to curb birth rates. This took me by surprise as I was sure the religious regime in the Islamic Republic could not be credited with such a programme. I was under the impression that Muslim clergy, no matter where it is located, encourages procreation and generally tends to oppose birth control. Our expert continued by stating that Iran was the only country in the world that ran a programme holding state-run counselling sessions for young couples planning to get married, and explaining choices in birth control and helping them with family planning.
The experts continued debating the best methods of tackling over-population. One argued that a decrease in birth rates is brought about through education, while the other put forth the idea of raising people's income as the only sustainable solution.
A crucial point raised was that though it was true that being well off economically has led to fewer children in the West, in the East, one should also look at the model of Iran which has achieved dramatic results since the 1980s. Still sceptical about a regime which had marred the political landscape with questionable election results recently, and one that was facing its own 'baby boom' after the war with Iraq, I decided to verify the claims.
To my amazement they were well supported. Iran had dropped from an all-time high rate of 3.2 per cent in 1986 to 1.2 per cent in 2001. This is one of the fastest drops ever recorded, with the lifetime fertility rate for a woman dropping from seven children to three. By 2010, the United Nations projects that Iran can achieve a lifetime rate of two children per woman, considered replacement-level fertility.
This was a pragmatic adjustment by the Iranian government when faced with a faltering economy, the shortage of jobs and strained resources. They assessed their situation, reversed their position and embarked upon an enlightened programme which has yielded positive results. Their success is based on formulating a programme which suited their conditions best.
The programme was comprehensive, it proposed and addressed critical success factors including male participation in programmes, accentuating social benefits of smaller families, mandatory counselling before marriage and a policy fully endorsed by the government.
For us in Pakistan relentless shortages and increasing pressure on resources paint a grim picture. It is probably far dourer than what was faced by Iran when it decided to tackle the issue head-on. Amidst the flurry of questions hurled at our ministers, we are told to stomach electricity load-shedding in the summers and gas load-shedding in the winters. The rivers are running dry.
There are sobering opinions written on the deteriorating state of the environment, education, sanitation, healthcare, transport and in general the infrastructure that is in place to support our citizens. There are few remaining bright spots.
Our birth rate is roughly 20 per cent higher than India's, and exceeds that of Bangladesh. In the region, only Afghanistan's is higher as the Afghans try to piece their war-torn country together. In absolute numbers though, Afghanistan is home to 28 million people, while the population in Pakistan has surged past the 170 million mark.
Human resources are a country's asset if developed properly. When the strength of institutions and infrastructure keeps pace with or exceeds the population growth rate, then the situation is sustainable and desirable. This is certainly not the case for us, and it will become more difficult
to nurture the coming generations and give them a competitive chance in this world.
Every child needs more than basic sustenance and survival in a declining environment like ours. Children deserve the same level of education, healthcare, security and opportunities that is afforded to others born elsewhere.
It is never too late to start, but a sense of urgency is needed. In order to improve our lives, we must realise that we are faced with finite and dwindling resources. At this rate if the growth of population is left unchecked, our future generations will have to make do with less. If we feel burdened, it is not fair to hand down a depleted country to our children.
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