ISLAMABAD, Aug 2: The dynamics of politics in Islamabad have changed drastically as a consequence of the Conduct of General Election Order 2002.

The political parties, ill-prepared for the new rules of the game, have been forced to change the strategies followed since party based elections of 1988.

The Conduct of Election Order 2002 has increased the number of Islamabad seats for National Assembly from one to two. The capital has been divided into two territorial constituencies, Islamabad-I NA-48 and Islamabad-II NA-49.

The NA-48, according to the Order 2002, would now comprise urban areas excluding sectors E-7, F-5, F-6, F-7, G-5 and G-7. The NA-49 would include Islamabad Tehsil and the sectors E-7, F- 5, F-6, F-7, G-5 and G-7.

In the 1997 general elections, NA-35 comprised both the urban and rural areas.

According to the Election Commission, Islamabad has been divided into two territorial constituencies on the basis of 1998 Census and geographical compactness of the areas.

As the date for election schedule is closing in, political parties have convened parliamentary board meetings to identify candidates for capital’s two seats.

Candidates from Islamabad constituency have already informed the respective party offices of their interest to contest elections from NA-48 and NA-49. However, final decision on the candidates, who will be given tickets, is yet to be finalized by all the parties.

The local party offices in the capital had no profiles or photographs of their prospective candidates.

Political pundits predict that considering the past voting patterns, the election results in the capital are likely to be tilted in favour of the PPP or PML-N with other parties, being the spoilers, dividing the votes. Unless an upset occurs, the PPP and PML-N are likely to rule the roost, at least in Islamabad.

For the past three general elections, the NA seat from Islamabad has been a stronghold of PML-N). It was only in 1988 that a PPP candidate, Raja Pervaiz (late) was elected from this constituency. However, the statistics are likely to change in the October elections.

Prospective PPP candidates from the capital are: Syed Nayyar Hussain Bokhari, Dr Babar Awan, Dr Israr Shah and Mustafa Khokar, son of Haji Nawaz Khokar.

Haji Nawaz Khokar, who crossed over to PPP from PML-N, was elected from NA-35, in the party-less polls of 1985, 1990 and 1993.

Convicted on corruption charges by the National Accountability Bureau, he has already filed a petition against it. Meanwhile, his son has applied for party ticket to contest for Islamabad seat.

The PPP is depending on the Khokar family. In case, Haji Nawaz Khokar is disqualified his son could be the alternative candidate due to strong biradri ties in the rural population.

Syed Nayyar Bokhari, the other PPP candidate, had lost to Haji Nawaz Khokar (PML-N) in the 1993 elections. But in the coming elections, he is likely to benefit as his arch rival would now be backing him up.

In the final decision, the party would have to consider whether a political novice Mustafa Khokar should be awarded ticket or prefer a senior party leader with proven loyalty to the party.

Another PPP dark horse in the race for capital’s seat is Dr Babar Awan advocate. He previously contested for NA seat in 1997 from Murree. Dr Israr Shah, a candidate for PPP ticket from the capital, originally belongs to Lahore, he is being kept as a cover option for the Islamabad seat.

The PML-N, is in a fix to find the winning combination, after the defection of Haji Nawaz Khokar to PPP ranks. Zafar Ali Shah, winner of NA-35, in the 1997 elections is likely to contest from his stronghold. He told Dawn that he planned to contest elections from NA-48 and also from Rawalpindi for NA 56.

Dr Tariq Chaudhry has emerged as the unanimous candidate of PML-N for NA-49. Graduate of Rawalpindi Medical College, he has not contested from Islamabad before. Son of Chaudhry Fazal Dad, his family is associated with Muslim League for decades.

In case PML-N decides that Zafar Ali Shah should contest from Rawalpindi alone and not from his strong constituency, the name of the back-up candidate would be announced after the party’s parliamentary board meeting.

Political pundits said PML-Q would have a hard time finding two respectable names with political backing for contesting NA-48 and NA-49.

Dubbed as the “the king’s party” on allegations of being backed by the Musharraf regime, the party considered the names of Alamgir Khan and Adnan Kiani.

Both the candidates have never contested National Assembly elections. Party’s information secretary said nothing could be said about PML-Q’s candidates till August 8. Currently, strong fissures have appeared over the party leadership row kicked off by Ijaz-ul Haq.

Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) has identified senior advocate Supreme Court, Ahmed Raza Kasuri, Group Captain (retired) Rab Nawaz and Colonel Younas Ali (retired) as prospective candidates.

Ahmed Raza Kasuri joined PTI less than two month’s ago. He had contested for Islamabad’s seat in the non-party based elections of 1985 and polled 3,545 of the 84,054 valid votes.

Many in the PTI think that he is a challenge to the PPP. “PPP was born in my home and I built Bhutto,” claimed Mr Kasuri, while talking to this scribe. However, the PPP activists reject this claim with many an interesting stories about his role.

The PTI claimed that Rab Nawaz enjoys strong support in capital’s rural fringe. Earlier, he was associated with the PPP.

Colonel Younas had contested elections for the national and provincial legislature from Shujabad and Jalalpur in Peerwala. He is likely to be a back-up candidate. The PTI tickets are likely to be given to Mr Kasuri and Rab Nawaz, party sources said.

Millat Party of ex-president Farooq Leghari has named Ayla Malik for the Islamabad seat while the names of other candidates are yet to be finalized.

Granddaughter of Nawab of Kalabagh, Ms Ayla was a social worker before jumping into the political arena. This would be her first political venture for the NA seat.

When contacted, Qaumi Jamhoori Party, founded by late Omar Asghar Khan, did not reveal the name of its candidates. “The names of the prospective candidates are not to be revealed,” said QJP secretary general Dr Zafar Mirza.

Political analysts said the QJP enjoyed support only in the NGO sector and would find it difficult to find winning candidates for the Islamabad seat.

The conglomerate of religious parties under the banner of Mutahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) is likely to reach a consensus in favour of Jamaat-i-Islami fielding its candidates for Islamabad.

The JI has decided to field two novices: Mian Mohammad Aslam for NA-48 and Professor Abdul Latif Khaki for NA-49.

Considering the past history, regional political parties and independent candidates would also be contesting elections for capital’s two seats.