MOSCOW Attacks on Monday in the heart of Moscow exposed strongman Vladimir Putin's failure after a decade of effort to resolve separatist violence entrenched in Russia's North Caucasus, analysts said.

As a result, the relatively progressive agenda of Putin's protégé and successor in the Kremlin, President Dmitry Medvedev, may be pushed to the back burner as the leadership refocuses on the Caucasus, they said.

“This is a failure of Putin's policies in the North Caucasus,” said Alexander Golts, an independent security analyst.

“Any act of terror is a failure of the special services. And the special services are the Kremlin's beloved child.”

One of the two suicide bomb attacks on Monday occurred under the nose of Russia's FSB security service, successor to the Soviet KGB once led by Putin that has been key in countering militants in Chechnya and elsewhere.

The blasts that killed 37 during morning rush hour in central Moscow came after the Kremlin with much fanfare ended its decade-long military crackdown in Chechnya last April, claiming stability had returned to the volatile region.

Since then however attacks on federal personnel in Chechnya and neighbouring Dagestan and Ingushetia have only intensified and Medvedev in November said instability in the region remains Russia's single biggest problem.

By abolishing the anti-terror operation, the Kremlin essentially handed Chechnya's youthful leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a controversial figure detested by rights activists, carte blanche to run the republic as he deems fit.

In January, Medvedev appointed a new envoy, Alexander Khloponin, tasking him with economic development of the region where abject poverty and chronic unemployment provide fertile recruiting ground for militants.

Many say the situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon and some complain that the FSB is more interested in keeping a lid on political dissent than on the daily grind of tracking down militants and preventing attacks.

Keeping dissidents in check “is less dangerous work,” Golts said sarcastically.

Putin rose to power in 1999 on famous pledges to “wipe out them out in the outhouse” and, in a similar comment after Monday's attacks, said “The terrorists will be destroyed.”

Aides said Putin was rushing back to Moscow from a visit to Siberia, an indication of the seriousness with which he viewed Monday's attacks.

Medvedev, whose two years in office have centred so far on promoting a few liberal reforms, has also recently ramped up his rhetoric against militants in the North Caucasus.

“This is a challenge for the country's political leadership,” acknowledged Mikhail Grishankov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma security committee with the rank of FSB colonel.

Gleb Pavlovsky, another political analyst known for his close links to the Kremlin, said Monday's suicide attacks would divert its attention from its current drive to modernise Russian society and force it to adopt a more muscular stance.

“This will take away its attention from modernisation. The current political agenda will become somewhat militarised,” Pavlovsky told AFP.

“Public opinion will change and this is exactly what the terrorists are after.”

The most important issue for the security services in the days ahead will be to see whether the bombings herald a wider terror campaign like that which led up to the Beslan hostage crisis in 2004, Pavlovsky said.

But will the bombings be a major blow to the image of the country's ruling tandem, leading people to take to the streets or pressure authorities into changing their Caucasus policies?

Not in Russia, say analysts, where society remains highly apolitical.

“The public logic is simple,” said Golts. “'I survived, my family survived,' they will cross themselves and go on.”—AFP