A MONTH-LONG conference in New York to shore up the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and prevent the global spread of atomic weapons is faced with possible collapse because of wrangling over the goal of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.

Senior western diplomats are warning that unless agreement can be reached over the next few days on a way forward for Middle East talks, the NPT review conference could grind to a halt without anything to show for it. Failure to achieve any positive outcome would be a serious blow to the credibility of the international community's efforts to deal with pressing nuclear problems, particularly with regard to Iran.

At the centre of the crisis are highly sensitive ongoing negotiations on plans for a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. The idea is being championed by Egypt and the Arab nations as a way of forcing Israel to admit publicly that it is in possession of nuclear arms as a first step towards eradicating those weapons.

Under a long-standing policy of ambiguity, Israel has never admitted possessing atomic weapons, though it is universally believed to do so. Israel is one of four countries that has refused to sign up to the NPT, and persuading Tel Aviv to attend any discussion on nuclear arms in the Middle East is proving difficult.

So far there is no sign that the Israeli government is prepared to budge, as it says it will only sign the treaty once a full Arab-Israel peace deal is achieved. A senior western diplomat said without Israel there could be no meeting on the nuclear-free zone, while Iran would also have to show up if the talks were to be credible given the confrontation over Tehran's nuclear enrichment programme.

Israel is under pressure from allies to conform on the issue, and talks are understood to be continuing with the US administration, which backs a nuclear-free zone. The diplomat added “Israel will attend if it thinks the cost of not attending will be higher than if it does.”

Parties close to the negotiations now fear if the Middle East plan fails to get off the ground then the Arab nations will act as a bloc at the New York conference — forcing it to end in failure, which has serious consequences.

“Two major crashes of the NPT review conference in 10 years, what would that say about our ability to take forward multilateral diplomacy?” a western diplomat said, referring to the collapse of the last conference in 2005.

— The Guardian, London