PESHAWAR, Aug 28: Wana is back in the news. South Waziristan's regional headquarters, which remained quiet for some time, is again showing signs of trouble.
The assassination of Maulana Noor Muhammad in a suicide bombing at his seminary's mosque last week has brought what is considered to be the 'ground zero' of militancy in Pakistan's tribal region into sharp focus.
Prompted by the killing of Maulana Noor Muhammad, a former parliamentarian and senior religious figure who was averse to any attacks on security forces and government installations, and 25 Ahmadzai tribesmen, militant commander Maulana Halimullah has issued a two-day ultimatum to the Mehsuds to leave Wana.
This is the second time this year that the Mehsud have been asked to leave the Wana region. Earlier, after attacks on security forces escalated following the military operation in the Mehsud part of Waziristan, the Ahmadzai Wazir had undertaken to expel them from the area. That endevour, all agree, turned out to be a mere eye-wash.
No militant group has so far accepted responsibility for the suicide bombing, knowing perhaps, the repercussion of such an announcement. Perhaps, the real culprits may never be known and Noor Muhammad had few friends and many enemies, but the immediate suspicion fell on Hakimullah Mehsud's Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan.
Officials put the total number of displaced Mehsud families in the Wana region, most of them living in the Karikot and Shin Warsak area but the number of Mehsud militants in the area remains very small.
Halimullah's threat to Mehsuds, therefore, may not mean much but what it may unfold, accor- ding to government officials, would be interesting.
Officials point out that the ultimatum has come not from Maulavi Muhammad Nazir, the top militant commander in the Wana region, widely known to be pro government, who, they acknowledge, surprisingly, also did not have any love lost for Noor Muhammad for being overly pro government.
Halimullah, they say, is one of the four senior commanders of Commander Nazir Group or CNG as it is called in official parlance. The other three commanders including their head honcho, Maulavi Nazir, has chosen to keep silent.
It may be tactical, say one senior official, since most of the Mehsuds reside in area controlled by Halimullah, a Tojikhel tribesman. But could this also mean trouble within the CNG? Nobody knows that. From the look of it, Halimullah seems serious to follow through on his ultimatum, but how would the Mehsuds or the rest of the CNG respond is anybody's guess, acknowledge an administration official.
It is dicey. Commander Nazir, it is said, had sought time until Eid to mull over a possible action against Mehsuds. Halimullah however, went ahead and issued his own pamphlet with a two-day warning ultimatum to Mehsuds.
What comes of the ultimatum would be known in two days. Surprisingly however, it is not the Mehsuds in Wana that is troubling the government. The threat, according to these officials, is coming from a different set of militants – the growing number of Punjabis and foreigners.
“In the medium to long term, the Punjabis, if their number continues to grow, can pose a potential threat”, the senior administration official said. “So far, they are behaving but if their comfort level continues to grow at this rate this would mean a much a bigger problem”, he said.
The government is now considering stepping up pressure on the Ahmadzai Wazirs to speak to CNG and persuade him to expel the Punjabi and foreign militants, something Maulavi Nazir would be too uncomfortable to do. The Punjabi militants were his main allies in fighting the Uzbeks in Wana region in April, 2007.
Officials say that they would make use of the 2007 peace agreement with the Ahmadzai Wazir and ask the tribesmen to expel all non-locals, be they Mehsuds, the Punjabis or the foreign militants. “This would be the real test of their commitment to the peace agreement”, the official said.
Also, the authorities intend to step up checking of non-locals into Wana to discourage Punjabis, some of who are believed to have affiliation with the banned Jaish-i-Muhammad. “We will be taking a few steps but we wouldn't allow the situation to aggravate”, the official said.
This would mean a tight-rope walk for the government and the security forces that already has too many things on its plate.