Hekmatyar's most recent comments suggest that no peace is possible in Afghanistan unless the foreign forces leave.—File photo

Political posturing is what the latest statements by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of the Hizb-i-Islami, can be attributed to.

The Afghan warlord, once a favourite of the Pakistani security establishment before falling out of favour and now back — marginally — in its good books, has sent mixed signals in recent months.

Mr Hekmatyar's most recent comments suggest that, one, no peace is possible in Afghanistan unless the foreign forces leave, and two, that if the first condition is met, the insurgents would ensure that Afghanistan would not become a haven for foreign militants, read mostly Al Qaeda, and that no harm would come to the US in future.

What are we to make of this? The Hizb-i-Islami is not considered a major player in the insurgency in Afghanistan, mostly being confined to eastern Afghanistan and having some links to the province of Baghlan.

As such, a major question mark hangs over whether Mr Hekmatyar speaks with the support of Mullah Omar, the supreme commander of the Taliban.

Without the support of Mullah Omar, no one can hope to deliver on any pledges to the Americans, and it should be noted that the supreme commander pledged over Eid to defeat the foreign forces.

There is also the problem that after making overtures towards the Karzai government earlier this year, the Hizb-i-Islami is believed to have come to the conclusion that the Afghan president has no real power and cannot deliver on any deal himself.

This may explain why in his recent interviews Mr Hekmatyar has played down the possibility of a deal with the Karzai government and focused on speaking to the Americans.

For its part, the US is believed to have had back-channel communications with Mr Hekmatyar for years, but the experienced Afghan warlord is understood to have repeatedly promised much only to quickly backtrack, a frustrating circular exercise that continues with no side having much faith in the process.

In any case, presently a review of the Afghan strategy is under way in the US, with decisions expected by December — meaning that for now it will likely be status quo in Afghanistan.