LAHORE, Sept 22: Pakistan would face 36 per cent water shortage during the coming Rabi season — from Oct 1 to March 31, 2003, —, according to the calculations made by the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) and conveyed to the provinces.

The Punjab, however, thinks that the projected shortage could be slightly less at 32 per cent. A meeting has been convened on 28th for finalizing the strategy to deal with the situation.

About the reasons behind shortage, an expert at the Irsa said that rivers flow is expected to be 10 to 15 per cent below normal this year. In addition to this, the country has also lost a storage capacity of around 20 per cent during the last three decades, he said. The total storage was around 15 million acre feet in the mid-seventies which has now come down to 12.5maf. Both these figures explain the shortage of water for the coming season, he added.

According to an official of Wapda’s water wing, both dams of the country were overfilled this year — Tarbela went up to 1,552 feet against 1,550 feet and Mangla touched the 1,206 feet mark. But this proved to be more of a psychological, rather than practical advantage.

The overfilling added only 0.2maf more water and the additional water did not last even for a week when dams started depleting on Sept 8. Tarbela has been depleting at the rate of 1.8 feet and Mangla 0.3 feet daily. With this speed, both dams would be at 1,518 feet and 1,197 feet on Oct 1, when Rabi season starts.

“One must not forget that around 2.2maf of water has already gone waste to sea due to silting up of dams and our failure to build new dams,” says a hydrologist working with the World Bank. Had the country built new dams, at least this 2.2maf — almost equal to the capacity lost to silting up — could have been saved and the shortage brought down to a more manageable 15 per cent. The water planners and rulers must take note of the situation and immediately start building a new dam before it is too late, he warned.