LAHORE, Sept 29: As President Pervez Musharraf breaks ground on Monday (today) for raising Mangla dam, one wonders what does it hold in store for the country — will it end up being another Motorway project for which the posterity will pay through its nose or an “impossible” plan is being thrust upon the nation for immediate political gains before elections.

Both possibilities can become realities depending on the future behaviour of the leadership. If it goes ahead with the project at a cost of Rs 60 billion, it will place a heavy premium to be paid by future generations. The Lahore-Islamabad Motorway is one such example where personal preferences by the rulers have held future generations hostage to the project.

But if the government is using the plan to raise some political hype just before a lacklustre elections and plans to abandon it later in favour of other more feasible projects like the Sanjwal-Akhori dam, it may end up sealing the fate of the project for ever— future governments might not be able to raise the dam level even when required by the year 2020. The Kalabagh dam is the worst example of this kind of official miscalculation.

The role of the federal government in approving and pursuing the project has been consistent and understandable. Both, president Pervez Musharraf and his chief water adviser, Wapda Chairman Lt-Gen Zulfiqar Ali Khan (retired), have invested heavy personal stakes in the project during the last three years. The Wapda chief has been defending and promoting the project as the most important national requirement in drought years.

In spite of this, there was a slight change of heart when both Pervez Musharraf and Zulfiqar agreed to explore other more viable options like Akhori dam. President Pervez Musharraf had directed the Wapda authorities to look into Akhori option after a briefing by the Punjab in January last.

Wapda carried out a preliminary study and found the Akhori option “do-able and cheaper than the Mangla project.” A summary was moved also in this regard. This gave hope to water experts that the Mangla project might be shelved in face of severe opposition and on technical grounds. But, on Sept 26, the federal government again decided to pursue Mangla raising first.

“Country’s political situation has dictated the decision. The present government needs a political flip in runup to the forthcoming elections,” says an official of Wapda’s water wing. Call it myopic or anything else, but it was practical problem with the government. Otherwise it knew that the project must be pushed down the priority list when put in the national context, he added.

In the whole controversy, it is the behaviour of the Punjab government which is beyond comprehension. During the last three years, it has been at pains to prove that project is not only impossible because of water non-availability it will also add to water sharing controversies already hurting the federation. But, now, suddenly it has decided to go along the federal government.

“The Punjab government now supports the raising of the dam,” says an official from the Punjab. But he did not answer a question that the provincial government objections (to the project) were technical in nature and how they could be withdrawn without proving that either ground realities had changed or the provincial authorities were wrong in their calculations.

Quoting from the only available study (Lieftinck Report of 1968) on the river Jhelum behaviour, the Punjab has been arguing against the project on the basis of non-availability of water.

According to the Lieftinck Report, the Mangla dam was constructed to the optimum capacity of 5.88maf gross and 5.34maf live storage because Jhelum did not have assured water supply to fill the dam beyond that level.

Will a change of perception at the provincial level now generate water for raised Mangla dam or sharing controversies will die down remains to be seen. But what is certain is that the federal government has forced its way through.