The rise and fall of civilisations is a historical phenomenon. Why does it happen? Are there some laws which govern this ascent and descent? Is there a fixed duration for the rise and fall of a civilisation or does it vary from civilisation to civilisation? Are historians capable of deciphering this phenomenon? These are the questions which worry historians and thinkers.

The modern discipline of archaeology excavated some of those civilisations which had disappeared, leaving no trace of their existence. This new knowledge brought them to light and reconstructed their lost history with the help of their artefacts. These enabled historians to analyse the phenomenon of the rise and fall of civilisations. Two historians of the modern period, Oswald Spengler and Toynbee were especially dedicated to this quest.

In the modern period, the dominant civilisation is that of the West which has already reached its height. Compared to other civilisations, it has contributed more to world civilisation. The question is that, is it also going to face the same fate as other great civilisations? Or is there any possibility to prevent its decline?

Spengler in his book Decline of the West predicts that western civilisation is on the decline and will ultimately face death. However, in his view, the concept of decline is quite different. According to him western civilisation reached its height in the 19th century when it created excellent music, literature, art, sculpture and architecture. To him, the zenith of western civilisation was during its feudal period when the princes patronised art and literature. The age produced such genius as Kant, Beethoven and Goethe. According to him, with the advent of democracy, art, literature, music and architecture became vulgarised. It began to produce cheap literature for the masses and pop music. Its architecture lost its beauty.

To him this is a sign of decline.

Western civilisation is different in many respects to the ancient civilisations which were restricted to what we now call the Old World. Western civilisation is not confined to geographical boundaries and extends its sphere of influence to the New World including America, Australia and New Zealand. The human and natural resources of the New World have enriched it beyond measure. It also spread its influence through colonialism; though the colonial era has come to an end yet, it left an influence of its culture in its former colonies where it is surviving along with the local cultures.

Another advantage to western civilisation is that now it possesses knowledge of the past through archaeological discoveries. This knowledge provides information about the rise and fall of the past civilisations. Equipped with this knowledge, it is possible to learn lessons and check the process of decline and take guidance on how to prevent the decay of institutions.

Another significant aspect of western civilisation is that it set up research institutions and established universities which are not only preserving knowledge of the past but also producing and creating new concepts relating to their needs. Their intellectuals and scientists are continuously responding to new challenges and finding solutions to problems.

As western countries have the best research facilities, the best talents from Asian and African countries are migrating there. Consequently, it is getting new and fresh blood from outside and their contribution to different aspects of knowledge is very significant. For example, the fiction writers of the Indian subcontinent are contributing literary work which is making English literature more fertile. This brain drain, while on one hand is enriching western civilisation, is, on the other hand, reducing the power of knowledge of Asian and African countries.

Knowledge grants an insight to western society; it helps them realise that they should change according to the needs of time. Therefore, they are restructuring and reshaping social, political, religious, and economic institutions and values.

Unification of Europe and strong links and reliance on America are some of the strategies being used to prevent the process of decline.

Perhaps, western civilisation might prolong its existence following Toynbee’s theory of challenge and response. However, one can detect signs of decline in its structure. It’s withdrawal of social securities, the growing gap between rich and poor, its involvement in international conflicts, its ambitions to retain its hegemony over Asian and African countries, growing trends of racism within its social structure, and failure of its economic policies; these factors may lead to a slow and gradual decline of the western civilisation.