PESHAWAR, Aug 5: Almost one-third area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is permanently vulnerable to flash floods due to rapid changes in the weather pattern and inadequate risk mitigation measures.

Massive changes in weather pattern are going to add to the vulnerability of major areas in the province as a result of monsoon hazards, which usually emerge as a result of heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding along the three main rivers including Swat, Kabul and Indus. Shabir Hussain, a Peshawar-based watershed expert, says average rainfall in South Asia is expected to increase between 17 to 59 per cent and it can be associated with a doubling-up in the frequency of high rainfall events and variable monsoons.

“During the past decade, the monsoon coverage area has shifted nearly 100 kilometres westwards that has brought catchment areas of Swat, Kabul and Indus Rivers into its fold. This means the severity of floods caused by the three river systems is going to increase particularly after multiple cloud bursts, a new phenomena,” Mr Hussain said while talking to Dawn.

Information gathered from different parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa suggests that heavily populated districts constitute catchment areas of major rivers where their tributaries proliferate, thus creating flash floods vulnerability.

Having particular geographical configuration, the northern and north-eastern portion of the province was excessively mountainous stretching from Chitral up in the north to districts of Upper and Lower Dir, Shangla, Swat and Mansehra that are prone to flash flood and cloud burst.

Charsadda, Peshawar and Nowshera, three main districts of the Peshawar valley constitute the catchment area for two major river systems including Swat and Kabul.

These two rivers with 13 tributaries and waterways flow along most populated areas of these districts, as last year floods affected 177,083 households in these three main districts besides impacting its agriculture sector that serves as food basket for the entire province.

Likewise, districts like Mansehra, Shangla, Swat, Dir Upper, Dir Lower, Malakand and Kohistan, which fall in northern mountainous region and Hazara division, according to experts are also prone to flash floods mainly because of almost 60 waterways including some major rivers flowing along these areas. Last year’s floods affected almost 241,070 households in these areas.

On southern parts of the province, districts like Dera Ismail Khan, Tank, Lakki Marwat and Kohat were also vulnerable to flash floods originated from the River Indus, Kurram, Gambilla and around 10 hill torrents. According to official record, 81,650 families were affected in the last year floods in these districts.

Moreover, River Chitral in north and its 11 tributaries flowing in different parts of the Chitral district is also increases vulnerability of six major population centres including Booni, Sonoghar, Chuinj, Brep, Owir and Terich to the flash floods.

Director General Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Shakeel Qader Khan acknowledges that both River Swat and Kabul do not have a proper flood monitoring mechanism and that was why in case of major water overflow is detected late just close to the Tarbela lake.

“Except Dera Ismail Khan, there is no proper dykes along these major rivers, waterways and hill torrents that increases the vulnerability of the community to the floods,” Mr Khan says, adding the irrigation department had prepared a plan for constructing spurs along these major rivers, but due to resource constraints it was yet to take off.

Apart from lack of proper early warning system and flood protection walls, the encroachment has also appeared to be a major issue that also adds on to the vulnerability of the households to the floods.

Officials at Revenue Department confirm that encroachment along the major river systems particularly Kabul and Swat and waterways in urban centres of Swat, Charsadda, Nowshera, Peshawar and Mardan are increasing the intensity of floods.

“In most of the cases, land grabbers have manipulated the revenue record and now getting the land vacated from them is almost impossible,” a senior official tells Dawn, saying “this issue is highly politicised and every political government avoid stepping into this mess”.

The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government is unable to come up with long term risk mitigation plans that include installation of early warning system, adequate flood protection and removal of encroachment.

However, a mechanism at local level was being evolved to handle post-disaster relief and early recovery in the entire province, which according to Mr Khan will improve the state response in case of any calamity.

The District Disaster Management Units (DDMUs) have been notified in 24 districts although these units are run by one District Disaster Management Officer (DDUO) without having any office or infrastructure that can facilitate his working.

The PDMA chief said the provincial government had engaged United Nation’s Development Fund (UNDP) for setting up the DDMUs offices in 10 most vulnerable districts of the province in initial phase. As per the programme, each DDMU will be given Rs2.4 million for procurement of vehicles and office equipment. This project will be replicated to remaining districts in the subsequent years, he explained.

As a result of this intervention, Mr Khan says that these local level disaster bodies will generate resources, coordinate relief activities and create awareness, claiming “next time the response in any unforeseen calamity will be much better than before.”