DUBAI: A Yemeni power-transfer deal that demands President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down faces a range of obstacles that could derail it despite high-level Saudi support, analysts say.

Chief among the obstacles are that tens of thousands of protesting youths reject the Gulf-sponsored initiative and that the embattled leader’s sons and nephews, who control most of Yemen’s military forces, are reluctant to step aside.

Signs of trouble ahead were quick to emerge on Thursday when five anti-Saleh protesters were killed while demonstrating in the capital Sanaa just hours after the agreement was signed.

Saudi Arabia is heavily invested in the power-transition plan which after months of negotiations and false hopes, was finalised Wednesday in Riyadh in the presence of King Abdullah, a sign Yemen’s powerful neighbour will follow through on ensuring the deal’s implementation.

“There have been many bitter experiences with Saleh ... him backtracking on agreements ... He could reignite the situation,” political analyst Fares al-Saqqaf said.

“But now he has signed the initiative and the chances of him not following through are slim because of strict Saudi and international supervision,” said Saqqaf, who heads the Yemeni Centre for Future Studies based in the capital Sanaa.

Saqqaf argues that Saleh has been able to secure an “honourable” exit after 33-years at the helm, a significant benefit in comparison to his counterparts in Tunisia, who was forced into exile, in Egypt, who is being prosecuted, and Libya, who was lynched by his captors.

The agreement sponsored by the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council gives Saleh immunity from prosecution and allows him to keep his title for three months, though it demands he transfer “constitutional powers” over to his deputy, Vice President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.

“Saleh has made sufficient gains and he is tired of dancing on the head of snakes,” said Saqqaf echoing a phrase the president has often use to describe the task of governing Yemen.

Ibrahim Sharqieh of the Doha-based Brookings Institute said the power transition plan “has a real chance of success, mainly because of Saudi sponsorship and a unified international stance on Yemen.” On Oct 21, the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 2014 condemning the Yemeni government crackdown on the 10-month anti-government protest movement. It also called on Saleh to sign the Gulf initiative.

But the path to future Yemeni stability, the end goal of the agreement, Sharqieh warns, will be difficult as a new leadership attempts to undo years of manipulation by Saleh of Yemen’s powerful and heavily armed tribes.

He said the greatest challenge will be “restructuring the armed forces and Yemen’s various military units” as stipulated by the agreement.

Saleh’s eldest son Ahmed commands Yemen’s elite Republican Guard units, while other members of his family, particularly his nephews, control the remaining forces.

“This is the real test. If they (the sons and nephews) stay (in power) then it means the regime stays, even if Saleh is not at its helm,” he said, a fact that pro-democracy demonstrators who have bore the brunt of the brutality of Yemen’s security apparatus, would reject.

The youth behind the protest movement demanding Saleh’s ouster have already made their objections to the Gulf-initiative known, as thousands on Thursday marched in the capital denouncing the plan’s immunity clause.

Five protesters were killed and 34 others were wounded when suspected Saleh loyalists opened fire on them.

The protesters also chanted slogans against the Common Forum parliamentary opposition bloc led by the Islamist party Al-Islah which was the first to sign up to the plan and the entity that will head a transitional government.

The Common Forum “has no legitimacy with the youth movement, they do not represent them,” said Sharqieh.

“An opportunity was lost when the youth were excluded from the signing of the agreement,” said Sharqieh, adding that the opposition should now ensure their involvement in the national unity government.

The youth’s exclusion has complicated efforts at a smooth transition in a country already wracked with seemingly intractable conflicts, including a Huthi rebellion in Yemen’s north, a separatist movement in the south, and an increasingly violent war with Al Qaeda’s deadliest global branch.—AFP