PAKISTAN’S persisting crisis of political governance has shrouded from public attention the more pervasive and fundamental human, financial and development crises that are progressively corroding the very foundations of the state.

Pakistanis are among the world’s most resilient and stoic people, but a social and political eruption is inevitable unless their basic needs are met and hope regenerated for a life of sufficiency for their children. This eruption has been long in the making.

When it comes, it will make the Arab Spring look like a picnic.

The first priority of any responsible Pakistani government should be to address Pakistan’s fundamental economic and social challenges. Unfortunately, our leaders have been too busy playing ‘the Game of Thrones’.

Yet, some have not lost hope that attention and endeavour will soon turn to these challenges. In the hope that some of our present or future leaders may want to address these challenges, set out below is an agenda for Pakistan’s socioeconomic revival, culled from proposals of some of the country’s renowned economic experts.

The first and urgent goal must be to end human suffering in Pakistan. One-third of Pakistan’s people live below the UN’s ‘poverty line’. Pakistan’s social ‘indicators’ for health, education, child mortality, the status of women are among the worst in the world. What is most alarming is that poverty has increased, not decreased, over the past few years.

To begin to address poverty, all government subsidies and external grant assistance should be utilised to provide a social safety net, health and education for the poorest third of the population. Programmes for the poor should be administered impartially, not politically. Support through these programmes could be linked to compulsory vocational training and skill development, work on local/community development projects, preventive health measures. Both national education and health programmes can be enlarged and improved through larger government financing as well as public-private partnerships.

Second, it is vital to restore fiscal and monetary balance. If we do not, the reckoning will be much harsher than a Greek tragedy — a broke state, rampant inflation, economic collapse and major social eruption.

Therefore, notwithstanding political expediency, Pakistan must impose spending cuts, ‘zero budgeting’; a comprehensive GST (with the aim of raising tax-to-GDP ratio from 8.5 to 15 per cent over five years); full autonomy for the State Bank; and ‘inflation targeting’.

The foundations of fiscal policy can be strengthened further through the implementation of last year’s NFC award, measures to increase tax on agricultural incomes (with temporary exceptions for the poorest farmers), full review and rationalisation of financial subsidies provided by the federal and provincial governments and reform especially of public-sector enterprises which are incurring annual losses larger than the development budget.

Also, capital markets can be deepened and the banking sector strengthened, including giving full autonomy to the State Bank; public-private sector competition in the insurance sector; a regulatory framework for the private pension fund industry; a larger role for private equity and venture capital funds; development of ‘secondary’ markets in housing and consumer finance; and increased participation by the federal and provincial governments in the bond market.

Third, massive investment — public and private — is required for infrastructure development. We have survived on what was built by the British and in the 1960s. Since then, the gap between demand and supply has grown to enormous proportions.

Pakistan is short of all essential infrastructure requirements: energy and power, transport and communications (roads, railways, ports), telecommunications, housing.

Historically, no country has developed without significant inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). If the political uncertainty ends, well-planned and executed investments in a number of sectors can be very profitable. These investments must be consciously encouraged; not driven away by corruption and court cases. And, it is a fact that, in Pakistan, domestic investment follows or accompanies, rather than leads, foreign investment.

Fourth, trade and exports are prime instruments to generate rapid growth. Pakistan needs a coherent strategy for export expansion. This strategy will need to encompass (a) reduction of tariffs and other barriers to Pakistan’s exports in major markets; (b) improved quality control and increase in the ‘unit price’ of exports; (c) a review of the cost/benefits of existing subsidies; (d) product and market diversification e.g. in IT, agriculture, food processing, health and other services; (e) skill development; (f) support to small and medium enterprises (40 per cent of jobs in manufacturing sector); (g) selective ‘protection’ of nascent and strategic sectors/industries; (h) maintenance of a ‘real’ exchange rate, aligned with inflation and designed to maintain competitiveness of exports; (h) a review of the effectiveness of free trade agreements; (i) FDI investment and link-up with international production chains; (j) improved ‘packaging’ and marketing.

Trade competitiveness will also depend on improving efficiency and productivity of Pakistani companies and enterprises through technological progress (the consolidation of production in various sectors e.g. textiles, labour market and legal and regulatory reforms, streamlining the interface between government and the private sector.

Fifth, Pakistan needs to pursue a strategic economic direction that is aligned with its national interests. Pakistan’s economic links are well developed with the West, mainly due to colonial and aid relationships. But we have failed to exploit fully the economic opportunities flowing from Pakistan’s ties with countries and markets which are geographically and politically closer, especially China, the Gulf region, South and East Asia.

These are the regions that are emerging as the central drivers of global growth. Apart from the vision of establishing oil, gas and trade corridors with China, there are numerous other linkages that can be created with China — in finance, infrastructure investment, export production and technological development. There are similar synergies with the GCC and other Islamic countries awaiting bold action.

Sixth, without a professional and merit-based civil service, it is impossible to manage a modern economy. The basic elements for a fundamental reform of the Civil Service and improved economic governance are well-known. Several commissions have issued cogent reports and recommendations. As in other areas, what has been missing is the political will to implement these reforms.

The agenda outlined is not revolutionary, not even new. But until Pakistan’s leadership recognises the urgency of comprehensive reform, the country and its brave and resilient people, will continue their slide towards economic failure and social chaos.

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.