WASHINGTON: Barack Obama is to press German Chancellor Angela Merkel to support a growth package to help bail out Europe at the G8 summit this weekend amid fears in the White House that the eurozone crisis could damage the US president’s re-election chances.
Obama is scheduled to meet Merkel, the new French president Francois Hollande, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and British Prime Minister David Cameron at Camp David on Friday evening.
But foreign affairs analysts said that Barack Obama’s leverage with the European leaders is minimal on this issue. Although the US has the economic muscle to help Europe out of its mess, the Obama administration took the strategic decision not to become involved directly.
Instead, Obama is to use the Camp David summit for some quiet diplomacy, hoping to sway Merkel to endorse some immediate action to help growth. The problem for Obama is that most of the initiatives being discussed in Europe are medium-term or longer, too late to help him if the European crisis impacts on the US economy in the fall, just before the election in November.
Obama, in a television interview on Tuesday, acknowledged that the crisis could hurt America. “Europe is still weak and that is creating uncertainty for the business community here,” Obama said.
White House spokesman Jay Carney also recognised the potential pitfall. At the daily White House briefing, Carney described the eurozone crisis as “one of the headwinds that we face” and that the White House was monitoring it closely.
“It is another reason why we need to take every action that is fully within our control to assist the economic recovery that we’ve been experiencing, to further insulate ourselves from the kind of things that could happen globally that could affect our economic growth.”
He added that the administration believed Europe had the capacity and will to deal with the crisis.
The replacement of former French president Nicolas Sarkozy by Francois Hollande, who fought the election on a pro-growth platform, provides Obama with a potential ally in his quest, possibly forlorn, for an immediate European stimulus programme.
Obama is to welcome Hollande to the White House on Friday before the two go on to the G8 summit at Camp David and then to Chicago for the Nato summit.
At a Center for Strategic International Studies press conference in Washington on Tuesday, Matthew Goodman, who until last year worked for the Obama administration with responsibility for the G8 and other international forums, said the administration was consciously trying to put the onus on the Europeans to solve their own problem.
LIMITED LEVERAGE: He said the president’s leverage was relatively limited “but the anxiety will be real. And that will come out, I’m sure, in what President Obama says to the European leaders”.
Goodman said when he had been inside the administration, there had been debate about the value of the G8. “I think that last year, and you know, I was inside then, I think that there was some real soul-searching about whether the G-8 was really worthwhile,” he said.
The Arab spring had revived interest. “And this year I think the eurozone problem has given it particular focus again.”
Heather Conley, a former state department official responsible for European affairs, agreed with a reporter who asked if Obama might ask Merkel to switch from pro-austerity policies to pro-growth.
“Yes, I think certainly the president would encourage Chancellor Merkel to in fact create that balance. And the administration - secretary [Tim] Geithner and others _ have been encouraging not just an austerity-only approach to the debt crisis. I think the chancellor will respond positively to that,” Conley said.
“But as I said before, it’s all ... the devil is all in the detail on this. Everyone agrees that economic growth is a good thing. We all agree that world peace is a good thing. How do we accomplish it? And again, most immediately for Europe, how can this be accomplished right now to break this vicious cycle in my view of where austerity is now crushing growth?”
Conley added that the president’s role was limited. “We’re not in this game, quite frankly. This is really for Europe to sort out, and that has certainly been the administration’s approach in policy to that. We are sitting on the bleachers a bit. And we are going to have to watch how this plays out with the frustration in recognising that it will have a profound impact for the global economy and for the US economy.”
The main concern for Obama is the economic crisis, but high on the agenda is Hollande’s election pledge to bring French troops home from Afghanistan by the end of the year.
Foreign affairs analysts predict that Hollande is not looking for an international bust-up when he meets Obama and some fudge may be worked out that would see a French troop withdrawal begin before the end of the year, two years earlier than US troops, but be phased over a longer period or French troops withdrawing from combat roles to purely training.
Obama is also looking for a French commitment to help Afghanistan after the withdrawal of all US and other international combat troops after 2014, in terms of offering training and financial help.
By arrangement with the Guardian
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