There have been multiple operations, of different sizes, in Khyber agency between 2008 and 2011. Two of the biggest were those of 2008 and 2009.

And yet, on June 11, newspapers reported that Tirah valley in Khyber agency had ‘fallen’ to the Taliban, forcing local families to move to surrounding areas, adding to the thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs) in the region.

Tirah valley has ‘almost’ fallen to the Taliban, corrected one journalist when asked about what happened. It is reported that the Taliban have established control over approximately sixty per cent of the valley.

However, the journalist also explained that around 1800 families have moved from Tirah to Jamrud, another sub-division of Khyber agency, “and this is not normal, people used to move in the other direction,” he added.

Analysts and those on the scene reveal that the debacle in Tirah is a result of minimal military presence – without support, the local people were not able to put a strong front against militant groups finding abode in Tirah valley.

Linked to Kurram and Orakzai in the South and Afghanistan on the West, the over 100-kilometre long Tirah is a beautiful valley in Khyber agency (with a small part extending into Orakzai). It has a rough terrain and hardly any road network.

“The Tariq Afridi led Taliban were ejected out of Dara Adamkhel in 2009 after a military operation in the Dara (2008-2009) and made their way to Orakzai and Tirah valley. Initially, the local people gave them space out of fear or because they were forced to,” explained Ibrahim Shinwari, a seasoned journalist of the area.

However, as the Kukikhel tribe – the native tribe inhabiting areas of Tirah and neighbouring Jamrud– realised the suffering they were facing because of the presence of the Taliban, the whole tribe started putting up a united resistance, added Mr Shinwari.

Since the Taliban were not in any mood to face opposition, they launched into a direct clash, and “given the fact that the local people did not have as many resources as the Al-Qaeda backed, larger Taliban,” the Kukikhel faced defeat.

Tirah valley remains an area where there is no military presence at the moment. However, this has not always been the case.

After 9/11, military forces and frontier forces had moved in to establish posts and stop infiltration of Al-Qaeda members into Pakistan from Afghanistan but they all left by 2004 and 2005 “for unknown reasons,” according to journalists.

“Part of the reason that Tirah has been left alone”, as Brig (retired) Shah Mehmood, a defence analyst pointed out, “is the difficulty of an operation in this area”.

“The army makes occasional forays but cannot launch a full-fledged operation that requires artillery because there are no road networks – Tirah valley is a very large area and it will have to be a very large operation to secure it. It will need at least two divisions,” he added.

Looking at the bigger picture, Tirah valley – that has historically never really come under the government’s control, is facing the consequences of the military operations in surrounding areas and might become another safe haven as Taliban feel the squeeze at other fronts.

Towards the east, Bara and Jamrud are undergoing smaller operations (ongoing since 2011 according to Mansur Khan Mehsud) and remain points of contention. Khyber agency has faced various operations since 2008 but of the three sub-divisions of Khyber – Bara, Jamrud and Landi Kotal – only Landi Kotal can be called safe.

Orakzai, in the south, is undergoing a major operation in which, according to Brig Mehmood, the reports coming out show that foreign militants who had found refuge in Pakistan are getting targeted.

“If these foreign militants are actually getting killed, then this is really meaningful. There has been news of an Algerian and even a Maldivian getting killed and that shows that progress is being made,” he said, “but this is a mountainous area so the army moves very slowly, often on foot, so progress remains slow.”

Outside Tirah

A local journalist, when asked about living conditions in Bara, said that day to day life is miserable: “Small operations mean that they will put a curfew in 10 villages and then try to flush out militants,” so on daily basis, people have to face curfews, constant security checks from the government forces and insecurity from these militants.

“The writ of the state has not been established, there is hardly any political presence. Government offices, health units, schools, all these essentials remained closed in many areas,” explained Mr Shinwari.

“When they started the operation in 2009, over 600 government employees resigned and even though they claim that more than half have returned in different areas, there are no signs of a political administration and there have been ongoing attacks on peace forces,” he added.

The general agreement among observers is that this is a failure to hold onto areas that were cleared of militants. The army has gone into areas, cleared them out such that militants leave with the IDPs and move into other areas and at the end, the situation does not improve.

“They make check posts and declare an area clear but two or three days later we hear that someone has been publicly prosecuted or that deserters were killed or something like that,” expressed Ibrahim Shinwari.

On the other hand, Brig Mehmood defends this saying: “Bara hasn’t seen a full scale operation. In other areas, the army has gone in, launched an operation and maintained presence and are making progress, but in Bara the only attempt has been to scare off local militant groups for ten or fifteen miles when the likes of Lashkar-e-Islam increase the frequency of kidnappings for ransom and other crimes,” explained Brig Mehmood.

And the military has adopted a version quite similar. Journalists who have talked to the military about the latest development in Tirah reveal that as far as the army is concerned, this was not unexpected.

As operations continue in surrounding areas, they expected that the Taliban will move into the untouched Tirah valley, and in fact the army has expressed that Tirah developing into a refuge for militants group can be a problem considering its proximity to Peshawar so the probability is that they will engage the area eventually.

For now, the army believes that it has enough hold on the plains of Bara to ensure that there is no penetration from there.

But local observers are not happy about the progress in the region. “Look at the surrounding areas, none of the tribal areas is secure because the army has not been able to hold control.The only successful operations have been in Swat and Malakand where the army brought proper brigades and settled in the cantonment and maintained presence,” said one journalist, concluding, “if they have the will, they have to maintain presence.”