ONE single front against the government or selective electoral alliances? A campaign now or should the thrust wait until the election for greater vitality?

These are the questions for opposition politicians right now. The estimates their choices reflect are quite often at variance with the ‘general’ observations and ‘scientific’ surveys that suggest the toppling of the government and the PPP’s final and total dismissal from the field was only a weak push away.

So what if this is Multan and a by-election in Yousuf Raza Gilani’s constituency — its repercussions will be felt far and wide. The PML-N has dropped its own candidate in favour of a younger brother of Sikandar Bosan, the PTI’s third big catch in Multan along with Makhdooms Javed Hashmi and Shah Mehmood Qureshi.

Whatever the result of the contest, the NA-151 seat Abdul Qadir Gilani seeks to secure in the polls 10 days from now is set to add greater vigour to calls for a joint front against the PPP.

For the formerly principled PTI that wouldn’t sully itself in by-elections, for a PML-N which is threatened by the PTI, for the two parties’ extremely popular leaders, this is a contest well worth fighting, and fighting together. The maulanas busy taking out a march on Islamabad can wait.

The Difaa-i-Pakistan Council is captained by veterans looking for a new vocation — political if fate so ordains. With their long march from Lahore to Islamabad, the Difaa leaders are primarily seeking to set off a chain that could bring President Asif Zardari to his knees.

The PML-N doesn’t disapprove of the Difaa. It, like PTI, has been sending messages and spokesmen to DPC rallies but has refrained from joining the Difaa formally. The PML-N chooses to wait for election, or if the ever imaginative bookmakers from Islamabad are to be given some credence, for the first signs of a national government to emerge.

The PML-N has grown wary of aligning itself with a group that takes on the United States as it challenges President Zardari. The lines have sharpened over time. The Islamists and the West — yesterday’s opponents — are today bitter enemies and the situation requires defter handling from alternative rulers.

This is probably why the Sharifs have kept the Jamaat-i-Islami, their once natural ally, at a distance — forcing the Jamaat into PTI’s corner. But even this PTI-JI combination is far from a long-term alliance. It is as loose as the ever-shifting fundamentals of politics.

Some months ago, the PTI would have been all too happy to add their flag to the DPC marchers’ caravan. But the PTI has evolved and expanded and compromised fast and today it is bound by the constraints of a recognised power player.

Its failure to positively answer the Difaa invitation over a common cause shows its maturity and adds to its credentials as a contender for power. It can only improve from here.

For the time being, it is the Sharifs who must appear to be more adept at separating the emotional from what is possible. As expected their response to the reopening of the Nato routes hasn’t quite been in sync with the general condemnation by angry natives.

They are the fence-sitters for now, until and unless the buildup is huge enough for the marchers to suck them in. This is what the big parties can afford to do. They wait.

If not the whole of that movement the day Nawaz Sharif went on his famous short long march for the restoration of judges should illustrate the point.

The Jamaat cadres as well as some other relatively smaller parties were the most active on the day, determined to go the whole hog. By the time Nawaz came out to lead, it was over bar the ceremony which he then happily presided over.

The onus of listing support of the big parties, such as the PML-N and PTI, is on the DPC. The council must prove theirs as a show which enjoys a big enough following to be attractive to the ‘genuine’ replacements to today’s government.

If the size is right, it becomes that much easier for those beholden to national and international kingmakers to justify their joining an agitation. As popular politicians they cannot stay away from a procession that represents the wishes of everyone around.

Two, and more importantly, the genuine contenders for power are also there to temper the extreme views the gathering originally harboured.

At the top of the pack, they function like does democracy: they moderate. They are a guarantee to the concerned and always relevant against the crowd taking too extremist a course.

The next phase is where the list of the agitators’ objectives is carefully vetted to bring it in conformity with local needs and international standards. The DPC long march is an expression in anger whose dangerous extremist makers don’t as yet offer an alternative to President Asif Zardari.

This is their dilemma and leaves them courting the big names that can be advertised as the alternative, at the risk of being once again pushed to the side.

In the unlikely event of the PML-N taking the wheels of the bandwagon, the natives affected by Nato will surely take a back seat. The refrain will change from the demands of severing ties to a more efficient, honourable handling of relationship.

The danger would be contained. Stability of the existing order would be ensured. In the minds of the ditched natives, the US-Nato truck against the Pakistanis will continue. Instead of a march, election would seek to achieve just that.

The moot point is whether the main contenders — the alternate rulers — are capable enough to moderate the mood in a post-election Pakistan?

They will struggle unless they are fully cognisant of the strength of the marchers and are fully backed by powerful forces outside the ranks of the ever-suspected politicians.

The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Lahore.