HYDERABAD, Oct 14: The much-trumpeted rally to be held by the ruling Pakistan People’s Party in Hyderabad on Monday is being widely seen as the start of its campaign for the 2013 general election.

With nationalist parties pouring scorn on the PPP and Muttahida Qaumi Movement over the new local government law, the PPP has been in a sense forced to display its political prowess.

While preparations for the public meeting are in their final stages at the ground behind a private hospital off National Highway, a war of words between the government and its opponents is also gaining pace.

The nationalist parties term the public meeting an event to celebrate the division of Sindh and pledge to carry on more protests against the LG law. Whereas Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah made it clear that though everyone was allowed to protest peacefully and democratically, lawbreakers would be dealt with sternly.

Ayaz Latif Palejo-led Awami Tehrik plans to block highways on Oct 16 and Sindh Tarraqi-passand Party (STP) chairman Dr Qadir Magsi has already hinted at some ‘resistance’ after Eidul Azha to keep agitation going against the LG law.

As the current protest campaign had already taken a violent turn when improvised explosive devices were thrown or exploded at the residences of some PPP ministers and MPAs, a senior police officer told Dawn that they were ordered to show zero tolerance to those who tried to vitiate the peaceful atmosphere. “Law will then take its course if anyone comes on road and block it to harass PPP workers heading for Hyderabad public meeting.”

Besides PPP’s estranged allies including the Pakistan Muslim League-Functional, the National People’s Party, the Sindhi nationalists, especially the AT, STP and Sindh United Party (SUP), seem poised to capitalise on the present situation to create an electoral space for them.

“In the forthcoming elections people of Sindh will not repeat their mistake to give their mandate to the PPP, which has divided Sindh….We will defend the integrity of Sindh, face the PPP in every street and political forums and in the elections,” said AT president Ayaz Latif Palejo, who is also the convener of the Sindh Progressive Nationalist Alliance (SPNA), an electoral alliance of nationalist parties.

STP chief Dr Magsi puts it this way. “As far as our [nationalists] election strategy is concerned our understanding for contesting elections remain the same to field consensus candidates in Sindh because we think space is available for us,” he said, while referring to the SPNA’s formation to contest elections jointly. He did not rule out adjustments with opposition parties individually and at the SPNA level.

“The stance against the LG system will be our major slogan in the 2013 polls,” he added. “If free and transparent elections are held, the PPP will lose 40 per cent of its seats in Sindh. I am confident that we (nationalists) will bag around 12 to 15 seats, but if we are able to get even two to three seats, it will be a breakthrough in nationalist politics,” said Dr Magsi, who is eying a provincial assembly seat (PS-47 Qasimabad) in the upcoming polls.He admitted that the PPP’s electoral strength would not cease to exist, but it would not have that emotional attachment of the people. “That’s why opposition parties should field joint candidate on PS-21 by-election to make the contest a barometer for judging the PPP’s popularity graph in Sindh.”

Jami Chandio, a writer, opined that a broad-based anti-PPP alliance would be formed when elections got closer. He saw more gains for the PML-F or NPP than the nationalists in the polls. “Nationalists are gaining politically but the NPP and PML-F will make most gains in terms of seats. Nationalists lack organisational capabilities despite having a popular narrative. That’s why they can’t capitalise on it.

“The PPP committed two blunders. One the way it promulgated the Sindh People’s Local Government Ordinance and secondly when after seeing much criticism it didn’t opt for talking to the MQM to find some way forward to resolve the impasse,” he said and added that the PPP was losing politically and morally. “But its electoral strength will remain unchanged by and large.”

The PPP had been working with the nationalists in the past on core issues of Sindh, including water, the NFC award, Kalabgah dam, Greater Thal Canal and city government formation in Hyderabad. But the party’s reconciliation policy changed the dynamics of its politics.

But Maula Bux Chandio, a federal minister and an old party guard, views the PPP-nationalists rocky relationship differently.

“Ever since the PPP is formed its opponents also included those who claim to be nationalists,” he said.

He said a divided mandate of Sindh would be detrimental to the province. “In that case those believing in Sindh’s disintegration might get stronger.” However, he was confident that there was no alternative to the PPP in Sindh. “The PPP can’t think of dividing Sindh as it jeopardises its own survival.”

He agreed to what Mr Chandio said about an anti-PPP alliance. “Usually our rivals gather on one platform regardless of their political and religious thoughts. History is witness to it. They include both anti-federation and pro-federation parties to deny the PPP its seats.”

He pointed out that the PPP had spoken to an elected party (the MQM) which termed Sindh its motherland. “If forming an alliance with it is a barometer for dubbing someone as traitor, then such list of traitors will lengthen. The names of those helped the MQM and got its offices opened in Sindh when it had a different slogan will top the traitors’ list,” he said.

The LG system was part of the PPP’s 2008 election manifesto wherein it vowed to “make a three-tier system of government i.e. federal, provincial and local”. The manifesto, which is available on the party’s website, said that the LG system introduced by the military regime was manipulated for political gains and it would be revamped to bring it in line with the party’s devolution plan.

The general secretary of the PPP’s Sindh chapter, Taj Hyder, dispelled the impression that the LG system was divided along ethnic lines. “The present system provides more breathing space for bureaucrats than elected representatives. The CM has got more powers. The chief officer can even refuse compliance of any order of a chairman/mayor. Every policy is to be framed by the CM,” he said.

He felt that the nationalists were not attacking the PPP properly and they needed to be more informed. “They are playing to the gallery. We take the present criticism against the LG system as one of those the PPP is faced with in the country,” he said and added: “We are told that we can win (seats in) three out of the five districts in Karachi. If it is so then why not (seats in) 12 out of 18 towns. Smaller constituencies mean the end of hegemony or monopoly of many.”