ISLAMABAD: These days all the political parties are seen taking pride in the fact that for the first time in the history of the country the federal and provincial legislatures have completed their full five-year constitutional term.

But will the parties of the government and the opposition overcome the bitterness that marked those five years and agree on an impartial caretaker chief executive for conducting the next general elections?

That's not just the constitutional demand but a test of their political maturity also. American theologian and public intellectual Reinhold Niebuhr of the 20th century famously said that “the whole art of politics consists in directing rationally the irrationalities of men”.

So completing the five-year term can be an achievement and a milestone but the real test for the political leadership will be how smoothly they effect the transition through elections.

“It will be a bumpy ride. But, on the basis of their five-year record, I hope they will pass this test as well,” said Dr Rashid Ahmad Khan, formerly head of the Political Science Department at the Punjab University.

Caretaker set-up at the Centre

Articles 224 and 224-A of the constitution give the task of choosing a caretaker prime minister, after the National Assembly stands dissolved, to the leader of the house, and the leader of opposition - in the present case Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf and Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, and their party's leadership.

Other political parties represented in the National Assembly have the right to suggest a caretaker set but, constitutionally, it is the sole responsibility of the PPP and the PML-N.

Formal consultations have already been made by the two parties in this regard but the final choice would depend whether President Asif Ali Zardari, as co-chairman of the PPP, and Nawaz Sharif, the PML-N supremo, agree on a common choice or let the Election Commission of Pakistan do that, as dictated by the constitution.

Punjab

The same political equation exists in the province of Punjab but with the roles of the two parties reversed - the PML-N rules and the PPP leads the opposition in the provincial assembly.

Them agreeing on the caretaker chief minister of the province becomes crucial for both the parties as the real electoral battles will be fought in this majority province. What gives the PML-N edge in the political manoeuvring, if the going gets tough, is the fact that while the National Assembly dissolves on March 16 the PML-N can legally put off the date of the Punjab assembly until April 8. That will necessitate holding elections to the two assemblies on different dates.

The PML-N has stated more than once that if the PPP and its coalition partners made any attempt to hoodwink the party on the choice of caretaker chief ministers in Sindh and Balochistan - in whose legislatures it had no representation - it will not dissolve the Punjab government with the dissolution of the National Assembly. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for the election commission to hold general elections on two different dates.

One has to wait how the electoral politics plays out in Punjab whose population exceeds the populations of the other three provinces combined.

Sindh

The Sindh province comes next in the population strength. The PPP and MQM ruled it together until last month when the MQM quit the government and was allotted the opposition benches and the slot of the leader of opposition.

So the former allies will now be choosing the caretaker chief minister for the province, something uncomfortable to the PML-N which smells a rat and foul play in the PPP and MQM falling apart after enjoying the fruit of power for four years and eleven month together.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The political chessboard in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is less crowded with cut-throat politics than the other three provinces. The Awami National Party (ANP) has been ruling the province since 2008 without much fuss, not even from the JUI-F leading the opposition benches.

If the two parties fail to agree on the caretaker chief minister, the election commission can smoothly pick its choice from a panel of four nominees, two each from the ANP-led government and the opposition JUI-F.

Of late, reports from Peshawar have suggested that the two parties are working for a possible seat-to-seat adjustment in coming elections. It would be safe to conjecture that the caretaker chief minister issue there would be settled amicably.

Balochistan

This restive province had the unique fortune of all the elected political parties in the government - literally all the members of the Balochistan assembly, except one, held some cabinet post.

But their applecart got upturned in mid-January when Governor's Rule was imposed to check the merciless killings of Shia Muslims belonging to the Hazara community.

Until then there was no official leader of the opposition in the provincial assembly. But since the constitution requires one for selecting a caretaker chief minister, there is talk of restoring the political set-up in Balochistan.

There are chances that the JUI-F, which is the third largest political party in the house after the PML-Q and PPP, will sit on the opposition benches.

However, a lot depends upon the suspended Chief Minister, Nawab Aslam Raisani, behaving correctly if restored this week when Governor's Rule will end automatically because no parliamentary approval has been sought for the same.

The PPP needs to have a compliant Raisani to smoothly move towards dissolution of the provincial assembly and the appointment of a caretaker chief minister.

Otherwise, the coalition partners will have to first vote him out to bring in a new leader of the house.

In the meantime, Nawab Lashkari Raisani, younger brother of the suspended chief minister, delivered a blow to the PPP by quitting as president of the party in Balochistan and joining the PML-N, turning the political situation in the restive province fluid and certain.

It will be interestingly see, how things develops in the province in the next few days.