Our country has witnessed an unprecedented stretch of devastating monsoons this year. Flooding affected nearly 20 million people and has crippled the already fragile economy. A number of informative articles have been written on the disaster such as that written for a daily by a former minister for environment and ‘The flood and disaster observatory’ highlighting governance issues by Dr. Sania Nishtar, ‘Weather chaos in Pakistan’ by Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry and ‘Will the Pakistan floods strike again?’ by Howard Falcon-Lang. However, these leave a niche to cover up some important aspects of monsoons in the country through the article under study.

The main purpose here is to bring forth the scientifically justifiable aspects not taken into account that caused the heaviest deluge this year and to have a preventive arrangement to keep the loss and disturbance level to minimum in the future. Pakistan has to give a lot more consideration to the global warming phenomenon in the region, as there is a much higher probability with which the monsoons are expected to afflict misery on our nation. Our defocused vision has until now not seen the writing on the wall and therefore lack of understanding has made us impervious to natural alerts and warnings. Pakistan has already been placed very high on vulnerability and other natural-calamity hit lists such as the Maple Croft Index.

Before focusing on floods caused by monsoons, a little mention about the hype that the deluge has been caused through unprecedented glacial melting because we have world’s biggest glacier system comprising Boltoro, Soltoro, Siachin Hispar etc is in the offing. The argument that the high energy beam (HAARP) has been used to quicken the melting is not tenable. In fact, troubling factor has been the abnormally high-density vapours and clouds causing torrential rains in short time which swelled the Kabul River (an area quite far from the Pakistani main glacier system). It is agreed that these glaciers sent more water to river Indus due to continued high temperatures during summer but it cannot be considered the cause of deluging and inundating the way we have experienced this year.

Some experts have opined that this has been a ‘once in a century event’, but this also incorrect. We are up against a phenomenon which is a direct consequence of global warming and we are now bound to have an increase in the frequency of such deluges in our part of the world. Some experts have even suggested that these glaciers will be wiped off in about 30 years which is a total misconception.

Our monsoon cloud system is based on evaporation from the Bay of Bengal, mainly causing rains in Punjab and Northern Areas, while the Arabian Sea (adding to the main cloud system from Bay of Bengal) brings rain in Sindh and Balochistan. Overall vapour contents are the result of composite heat during summer in the Indian subcontinent, surface temperature of Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. Moisture spreads northward from the Bay of Bengal, which then splits up and carries the clouds westward along the Himalayas through complex aerodynamics. Vapour density starts increasing as days turn from warm to hot in the subcontinent. Along the route of these clouds, Bengal gets average 100 inch per year as per available area-wise variegated data. Bihar on an average gets around 70 inches, UP around 55 inches, East Punjab nearly 40 inches. Accordingly, distribution in Pakistani cities runs as: Lahore 21 inches (30 years back the figure of 100 year average was 23 inches), Sialkot 32 inches, Islamabad/Rawalpindi 36 inches, Murree hills 55 inches (highest in the country). Then these clouds with lesser moisture, move towards KP and rainfall decreases considerably, varying from region to region. In some areas like Mianwali, Dikhan etc, annual average is around 12 inches for a normal rainy season. Sindh and Balochistan are also relatively dry but during some years, the Arabian Sea system brings additional moisture causing flash floods in Karachi and along the coastal belt.

This year has been extremely unusual. The heat index around the Indian peninsula during March and April has been so high that all records since the year 1900 have been broken. This resulted in a higher moisture content and the clouds which have normal height around 22,000 feet had to retain more water sending vapours further high, higher than the Himalayan range. This resulted in an interesting phenomenon; the pattern of monsoons remained as usual, i.e., the arrival of monsoons in Pakistan moving along the north Indian plane was not early. But the clouds were of extremely high density and many a time the columns (i.e. cumulonimbus) above the ground rose to a height of more than 40,000 ft. For this reason, the heaviest of downpours were witnessed in India and also in Pakistan. Higher density vapours available throughout the monsoons in the troposphere could have easily been sucked in case any ducting phenomenon appeared (as reported by Dr. Qamar in his article). Thus, cumulative rain water in catchment areas in upper half of the country steadily rose. Southward outlet (near Attock area) was slow and the resulting flash floods created havoc and brought untold misery. There was no proper fore-warning activity although some Flood Warning arrangements are supposed to be in place. An investigation on account of incompetence, lack of imagination and pathetic handling should be ordered.

Briefly, corruption, improper handling of data regarding temperature, rainfall, mapping of water accumulation areas, rain water storage and drainage studies and an inefficient monitoring and reporting mechanism have contributed towards bad governance in this matter. Therefore, taking into account all possible mechanisms based on which these floods caused devastation, comprehensive standard operating procedures (SOPs) need to be redrafted and a working model must be evolved for a timely roll out. Adequate coordination, monitoring and system optimisation has to be ensured for keeping the sufferings to minimum.

From a general perspective, urgent steps like revitalising the NDMA with full authority and responsibility with proper supporting set-up, improving data center through raising efficiency with the help of remapped affected areas, implementing redrafted SOPs and properly engaging the staff for overall surveillance and monitoring, speedy coordination making use of available resources like the Global Flood Detection System, tree planting and fund leakage plugging through proper check and balance, should immediately be taken.

Other resources such as the meteorological data information should be regularly obtained, analysed and suitable alerts issued, especially the rainfall patterns in Bengal, Bihar, UP, East Punjab and along the Himalayan slopes should be ‘microscopically’ studied and as far as possible, a liaison with Met offices of India should be established. Community participation should be streamlined through available facilities. Periodic reporting, performance monitoring, expenditure control, purchase of modern equipment with latest software and training of the personnel are very essential to make the effort a success. Above all, long-term planning encompassing topographic study of the water flow area and demographic aspects would help the future governments avert the impact of such a disaster to a greater degree.

Monsoon period, this year, is practically over. Rehabilitation is going to take months and we may again be caught in a similar situation next year (although the probability of an unprecedented monsoon season for consecutive years is extremely small). Let us be prepared and take what ever steps are technically, financially and logically possible. Our nation should not be exposed to the repeat of non-professionalism, callousness, carelessness and ill-preparedness as we have witnessed this year. All concerned should play their part and try to do their bits. Pakistanis, despite all the handicaps and problems, have the potential to rise to the occasion, and this is high time for the government functionaries and all others in the chain to prove that.

The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.