On pure cricketing merit, Pakistan has an excellent chance to retain the title they won last year in England. They are the world's most successful T20 outfit, despite having lost two of their last three T20 internationals; they still have a win-loss ratio of 3.14, far superior to all the rest.

The next best are South Africa (1.89) and Sri Lanka (1.5), followed by Australia and India (both 1.25); England, New Zealand, West Indies, and Bangladesh have each lost more games than they have won, giving them win-loss ratios less than 1.00.

Pakistan's squad is formidable and includes several names feared by other teams. There's a frightening seam attack in Mohammad Aamer, Mohammad Asif, and Umar Gul; a tightfisted off-spinner in Saeed Ajmal; and a sturdy backbone of all-rounders in Shahid Afridi, Abdul Razzaq, Mohammad Hafeez, Fawad Alam and Yasir Arafat. While Salman Butt, Khalid Latif, and Misbah-ul-Haq may have lackluster Test and ODI records as specialist batsmen, their impetuousness and daring are ideally suited to the demands of T20 cricket. Umar Akmal is the most skilled batsman in the squad but he often has difficulty finishing the job; let us hope this time it will be different.

Kamran Akmal may not be in everybody's good books these days — indeed, his disastrous glove work in Sydney is a stigma he can never erase — but he is an ideal T20 opener; combined with his wicket-keeping, this makes him an automatic selection. New blood Hammad Azam, a lanky medium pacer and lower order bat who was spectacular in Pakistan's recent Under-19 world cup campaign, rounds off the fifteen.

As always, there are some disappointing omissions. Many fans would have liked to see openers Imran Nazir and Shahzaib Hasan, in addition to the experienced Rana Naveed and Shoaib Malik (who are serving unexplained one-year bans), but the squad as it stands is still capable of a good deal of fight. Ultimately, much will depend on the leadership of Shahid Afridi. He is a naturally aggressive competitor with shrewd and bold tactics and a burning desire to win that is second to none, but his ability to take everyone along in a common vision and to extract the best from each player remain open questions.

Younis Khan proved a fantastic T20 captain when Pakistan won the title last year, mainly because he wielded a deft touch. Like Imran Khan in 1992, he was able to motivate his team just when disaster loomed and elimination seemed imminent. The key test of Afridi's leadership will come if things are off to a rocky start and the team finds itself facing adversity right away.

The way this 2010 tournament is structured, it might not take long. The twelve participating teams are organised into four groups of three teams each, with the top two from each group progressing to the round of Super Eight. Pakistan is in Group A, by far the toughest group because it also includes Australia and Bangladesh. In each of the other groups, the two frontline sides have a considerably weaker third team to deal with. Group B has Sri Lanka and New Zealand along with Zimbabwe, Group C has South Africa and India along with Afghanistan, and Group D has West Indies and England along with Ireland. Bangladesh is easily the strongest of the minnows while Australia, who don't have a great T20 record so far, are hungry to conquer this format. Lest you think this is some kind of conspiracy to peg Pakistan back, it isn't. The groups were configured based on seedings determined by a transparent formula that all teams agreed to.

West Indies is a beautiful setting for cricket and Guyana, Barbados and St. Lucia, where all the matches will be played, each have picturesque venues. Pakistan's title defense begins on May 1 with a match against Bangladesh at Gros Islet in St.Lucia, a relatively new stadium that hosted its first international game in 2003. Watching the tournament from Pakistan will be a challenge, because both of Pakistan's group games (along with most of the tournament's other matches) have afternoon starts corresponding to 1130 pm Pakistan time. Only a handful of matches have a morning start (730 pm Pakistan time) and for the start of the two day-nighters it will be middle of the night in Pakistan. The Caribbean may have awesome scenic beauty, but it is also a tropical climate, and you can be certain that rain and Duckworth-Lewis calculations will also have an important say.

A quick survey of bookmakers' websites shows that Pakistan is not one of the favorites to win. This should not be discouraging, because Pakistan wasn't a favorite last year either but still lifted the trophy. Most bookies have Australia as the most likely outright winner, followed by India, South Africa and Sri Lanka. This is a logical ranking, because Pakistan has suffered a string of recent defeats, plus the news coming out of the country, and especially the country's cricket board, continues to be terrible. Yet it would be foolish to write off a team like Pakistan, which has a habit of springing surprises when least expected.