Having worked for almost 30 years in several layers of leadership positions, from middle management to C-Suite, it has been very clear to me over the years as to why we have failed more often than succeeded in international tournaments. And before, during and after every tournament it pains me when selectors and Board officials come up with all sort of expectations, hope and justifications without feet on the ground … or rather not grounded in the mind.

We learned very early in business school to read trends and case studies gave us an insight into what is likely to happen. It was this that made me the laughing stock when I suggested strongly on TV channel talk shows before the Champions Trophy that India would win and nothing would make me lose my conviction. Weak bowling, too much hype, more T20 style cricketers overlooked the fact that they were in the grip of spot fixing charges and that more revelations were to follow. Though I maintained that their bowling was not that weak but my premise had less to do with team strength than the scandal that they found themselves mired in.

I looked back to the 2006 Football World Cup, and recounted the notion I had had even then. Italy was one of the weaker and dour teams in that event. Just before the tournament the scandal broke of their top internationals and four leading football clubs being involved in match fixing. Knowing how the mafia worked (you don’t need to see The Godfather to understand), it was evident that the only salvation was to go home as heroes. No prosecutor general would dare touch the demigods in a football-crazed country.

Added to that was also the fact that players would try harder, and dig deeper into their talent to return as winners.

I told a few friends to bet on Italy to win, but they wouldn’t believe me. I have never bet so could see the riches being so near and yet so far. Italy won the World Cup against all odds and run of play, the players came home to a rapturous welcome, and Juventus, I think, was relegated. The players were not touched and the scandal died a quick death.

I knew therefore that the Indians would win this tournament. In ODI cricket I believe that it’s the batsmen who win matches. You don’t have to get all 20 wickets as in Test matches; just pile up enough runs to allow bowlers of average talent to play on the pressure of the opposite batsmen to score. The batting was already awesome in the middle and frankly I had not expected Dhawan but Dhoni, Raina and Kohli to lead the run making.

But more than that I knew that when it comes to the betting mafia they have a reputation to keep and they don’t let their ‘soldiers’ charge without artillery and covering fire. Like all classic spymasters, if they send them in they bring ‘em back.

So why did I say Pakistan would have no chance this time? Let me put it this way, the priority was not winning as a team but winning a semi temporary place for the next tour and of course the match fees. Sincere players some of them, but when there is the law of the jungle around them, its every man for himself.

If you look back at the tournaments Pakistan have fumbled in, lost at the last hurdle, or won, there are five basic factors, and you will find these most when it comes to team success and failure, whether in business, war or sports.

Self belief

The first is self belief. The confidence that we have the ability to be the best when it matters most; to be not overawed by what you see ahead of you; to be like David who stood steady with his slingshot while the villagers ran from the advancing Goliath. While others believed he was so big they couldn’t fight him, David believed he was so big that he couldn’t miss.

This was there in 1992 in Australia but just wasn’t there in 1975 and even 1979, let alone the speeches of victory before departure; it’s always inside what matters.

The 1970s was a time when winning in English conditions was thought to be too difficult; that some individuals would get going but overall we would fall at the last hurdle. After all we had not won a Test there since 1954, and though on the tour previous summer we had won both ODIs against England with ease, even complete dominance in both bat and ball, there was Australia and West Indies and we just couldn’t win against their fast bowlers, could we?

So it was that we lost from balanced to even impregnable positions to both of them in that inaugural cup, never having to play England. In 1979, playing England and chasing a modest target, the legs of our star batsmen buckled because of their fear of late swing, and Hendricks ran all over them.

In the semi-final against West Indies, chasing 290-odd in the then 60 overs but with no field restrictions, Majid Khan and Zaheer Abbas found their rhythm to put on 170-odd. Suddenly the unimaginable was happening. But again, the feeling was that it was too good to be true; confusion prevailed because this was not expected. Asif Iqbal held himself back and sent Haroon Rashid before him. Pakistan collapsed as the pressure to score faster got to their shoulders. Again, they had lost from a winning position because they had feared the imagined inevitable.

Unity of leadership

The second factor is unity of leadership and a clear chain of command.

Again you could see it in 1987 and 1992, and the first three World Twenty20s. Imran would lead fearlessly and mentor and the bowlers and fielders responded to tactical advice from Javed Miandad also; Imran, too, was comfortable with that. Same was the case with Malik and Younis in 2007, Younis and Afridi in 2009 and Afridi and senior players in 2010.

But it was the lack of this in 1996 and 2003 that just couldn’t pick the team up when it mattered most. In the ’96 event, Wasim Akram was evidently in charge but it was clear that vice captain Aamer Sohail, Waqar Younis and Rashid Latif were their own men and vocal in the dressing room. Salim Malik had his own corner, having been removed as captain despite a successful stint as one.

Three years earlier, the whole team had rebelled and ousted Wasim Akram from captaincy within months of him taking over. Since then there were several who felt Javed Miandad was given a raw deal and should have been captain of this side, rather than being brought back from wilderness after some two years. On the morning of the Bangalore quarter-final Wasim Akram withdrew with an injury five minutes before toss. Aamer Sohail once told me that had he had more lead time to think, he would have asked Javed Miandad to lead in that quarter-final, such was his respect for the man.

In 2003, I was personal witness to the mayhem that was the side in South Africa. Though Waqar Younis had a good record of winning since he had taken over in 2001, and was Pakistan’s leading wicket taker of 2002, doubts were there as to who would be or was in charge in the World Cup.

Returning from South Africa a month before the event there, Wasim had said in an interview that he was about to be offered the captaincy for the World Cup. Some in the team felt that Waqar upset the balance of the side as Pakistan couldn’t play Azhar Mahmood who was an all-rounder, and had performed well after being preferred over Waqar in the previous World Cup in 1999, the year Pakistan reached the final.

To ensure loyalty, Waqar had brought in moderate batsmen like Saleem Elahi who failed miserably, and players like Shahid Afridi and Yousuf would run to Wasim if they had a tiff with him on the field. Inzamam refused to bat higher than No 4 and Pakistan lost from reasonably good positions against England and India simply because of lack of understanding with Waqar in the field.

Individual agendas and goals

The third factor is individual agendas and goals over team balance and strategy. This was evident in 1983 and 2007 and in the Champions Trophies of 2004 and 2013, and to some extent in the 2011 World Cup, especially the semi-final when Misbah batted too slowly.

In 1983, Imran refused to acknowledge a stress fracture in his shin and refused to step down as member or even captain of the team. There is nothing more demoralising for players than to know that their best bowler is unsure of bowling, especially if he is their leader.

Though Imran was Pakistan’s leading batsman in that event, but by taking a bowler less in the hope that Imran would bowl unsettled the side. Further, not selecting horses for courses like Jalaluddin because of Imran’s dislike, cost the team dearly. He would have been deadly in English conditions and was dropped after having taken the world’s first ODI hat-trick against Australia a few months earlier.

In 2007, it was Inzamam’s hold. Pinpoint bowlers like Shahid Nazir who had been so economical in the previous summer in England were overlooked as were deserving batsmen like Yasir Hameed. In-form players were dropped to bring in others like Kaneria and Imran Nazir from the wilderness before such a big tournament. Pakistan even lost to Ireland and exited in the first round.

It was the same story in 2004, which included a stupid decision of batting first on a rain-dampened Southampton pitch because the Indian captain had suggested it. Even forever England player and now coach of Pakistan, Bob Woolmer, backed the decision. Pakistan were bundled out for a handful and lost with wickets and overs to spare by West Indies. And we all know the reasons for 2013 Champions Trophy; selfishness, nepotism and out-of-form candidates playing for personal gains.

Doubt

The fourth factor is doubt, last minute confusion and change of guards.

Recall 1983 again and to some extent 2003 where Pakistan actually toyed on the eve of the first match of dropping Rashid Latif and asking Taufeeq Umar to keep wickets to get an extra bowler in.

In 2006 Champions Trophy this was evident by Younis Khan resigning before the event, being replaced by Mohammad Yousuf (having captained Pakistan before as well) and then being convinced to withdraw as Younis had agreed to the new chairman’s request with Yousuf then agreeing to play as an ordinary batsman.

To top it all, before the start of the tournament, the two leading fast bowlers Shoaib Akhtar and Asif were flown home because of suspicion of drugs.

Luck

And the fifth factor? Believe me it is nothing more than luck. That doesn’t mean lack of any effort on the team’s part but that if all is well planned, merited and there is determination, then luck plays a role; either you win because of it or a mistake or two and you’re gone.

Take 1987; Pakistan had never looked stronger in World Cups. Yet in the semi-final, we were told that we had to bowl the 50th over after some misunderstanding that it would be restricted to 49 because of completion of time. As a penalty they were then docked one over in their batting. Salim Yousuf had his teeth broken by a rising ball and Miandad kept wickets, eventually exhausted by the time he had to win the match despite a long innings. And Imran getting a bad decision when he and Miandad looked in control while chasing.

But luck played an important part in their reaching the semi-finals in the 1992 World Cup. All out for 78 against England, the match was rained off. Then Australia, already eliminated, had to beat the powerful West Indies in the last game of the tournament for Pakistan to qualify on a higher run rate, and they did.

In 1999 the system of teams carrying points forward to the next stage if the sides they had beaten also qualified, got them into the semi-final. Otherwise they lost two out of three matches in the Super Six stage. In 2007, it was one bad shot from Misbah with five to get in four balls that ended a fairytale fight back. And in 2010, three amazing sixes by Mike Hussey off Ajmal in the last over of the semi-final did the improbable.

In the 2009 Champions Trophy and the 2011 World Cup it was the dropping of crucial catches in the semi-finals that turned the momentum against Pakistan.

Study the other successful sides and you will see that they enjoyed either all or most of the five factors. Pakistan could have easily won at least three more World Cups and World Twenty20s and maybe a Champions Trophy. But sadly they have a poor trophy record simply because they can never master or control the five factors that go into winning. Until our cricket is not run with only Pakistan in mind, these five factors will always work against us, barring the odd miracle.

The writer has been writing on cricket since 1979, and has edited The Cricketer International (UK) Asian edition as well as authoring two books on World Cup Cricket history. He sits in as cricket analyst on various channels.