Elections are now just days ahead but the much talked about 10-party alliance — formed with the sole purpose of beating the Pakistan Peoples Party — seems undecided on many a constituency in Sindh.
The alliance is unique given that it includes in its fold ultra-right, sectarian and ultra-left parties. It was created at the heels of the controversial Sindh Local Government Act 2012, passed by the PPP and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, forcing the Pakistan Muslim League-Functional to quit the provincial treasury benches and join the opposition.
In the backdrop of the province-wide furore that followed the legislation, the current Pir Pagara, Syed Sibghatullah Shah Rashdi (known as Raja Saeen), capitalised on the nationalistic sentiments of the Sindhi people.
The 10 parties part of alliance are the PML-F, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), the Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan (JUP), the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), the Sunni Tehreek (ST), the National Peoples Party (NPP), the Sindh United Party (SUP), the Qaumi Awami Tehreek (QAT) and the Sindh Tarraqqi-pasand Party (STP).
Basically, the three mainstream nationalist parties — the QAT, STP and SUP — are trying to grab some space in parliamentary politics. They set the ball rolling against the PPP through two Sindh-wide strikes against the local government system from the platform of the Sindh Bachayo Committee (SBC) and Raja Saeen decided to cash in.
The PML-F chief visited Raiwind and agreed with the Sharifs to work for an alliance in Sindh. The formation of such an alliance posed a golden opportunity for the PML-N given that it has failed to build a strong organisational structure in Sindh.
The PML-F has adopted a changed path in present-day politics with bureaucrat-turned-politician Imtiaz Ahmed Sheikh playing a proactive role in luring ‘electables’. He worked similarly in 2002 against the PPP when he, along with his old friend Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim, formed the Sindh Democratic Alliance only to merge it with the Farooq Leghari-led National Alliance later. The PML-F grabbed 10 general seats in the Sindh Assembly in the 2002 polls and seven in 2008. Sheikh — said to be at loggerheads with Arbab — cultivated contacts among nationalist forces that were subsequently seen on the same page despite the fact that the component parties are poles apart ideologically. (A recent Arbab-Pir Pagara meeting for a seat adjustment may pose a problem for the PPP, especially in Tharparkar district where Arbab’s people managed to bag all the four provincial assembly seats despite the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto ahead of the 2008 elections.)
The alliance is neither registered nor has a particular name; it hasn’t come up with a programme or an ideology, being more of a sort of marriage of convenience or a seat-to-seat adjustment body.
However, since the alliance couldn't get itself registered with the Election Commission of Pakistan or get an election symbol, given the literacy rate voters may get confused.
The alliance’s basic ideology, if any, is to ‘get’ the PPP. But it appears to be a case of too many cooks spoiling the broth: the alliance leadership kept waiting for the arrival of electables who focused on the announcement of the provincial caretaker set-up.
“These waderas would have been with the alliance had there been a neutral caretaker regime,” says SUP president Jalal Mehmood Shah. “The PML-N and the PML-F kept anticipating that feudals will join them but it proved otherwise. We delayed the finalisation of seats and, in my opinion, that was a blunder.” Shah will square off with the powerful Malik Asad Sikandar in Jamshoro on NA-231 and on PS-71.
A delay in the announcement of candidates and subsequent differences between parties led to setbacks. For instance, disagreement over the candidature for PS-43 (Matiari) led Shah Mohammad Shah, senior vice president of the SUP and maternal uncle of Jalal Shah, to quit the SUP and join the PML-N. The alliance’s election board had unanimously decided on fielding him on PS-43 but Raja Saeen preferred Raees Nazir Rahu, a personal friend of President Asif Ali Zardari, from Matiari and gave him the PML-F ticket. He had otherwise announced that he would be contesting as an independent candidate against Makhdoom Amin Fahim’s son Makhdoom Jamil. Jalal Mehmood Shah managed to get the Pir’s nod for Zain Shah, his cousin, for PS-27 (Sakrand) against the PPP’s Ghulam Qadir Chandio at the cost of the PML-F’s Irtaza Unnar, who was denied a ticket by his party (but remains in the race).
Ayaz Latif Palijo, president of the QAT, is facing the SUP’s Abdul Latif Junejo on PS-47 (the home of Hyderabad’s nationalist parties) despite the fact that Dr Qadir Magsi withdrew from the electoral race. In Dadu, a break-up of the alliance between the PML-N and the PML-F is already under way. Meanwhile, the ST has quit the alliance in Hyderabad. The JUP’s Hussain Bux Hussaini faces the PML-F’s Nizam Arain on PS-45 of Hyderabad.
The SUP has not withdrawn its candidate on PS-51 in Tando Allahyar against the PML-N’s Dr Irfan Gul Magsi, and the situation in upper Sindh is the same: Zafar Ali Shah, a former PPP MNA opposed his party on the issue of the local government law, faces Aqib Jatoi of the NPP on NA-212. The NPP’s Ibrar Ali Shah is up against Syed Munawar Shah of the PML-N on PS-21 and the NPP’s Asif Shah is contesting against the PML-N’s Syed Zohaib Shah on PS-20.
“We basically lack vision and leadership and that’s why we are faced with this situation,” opines Zafar Ali Shah. “Even otherwise, the Jatois would not have voted for us because we rely on our own votes. We weren’t even heard in the election board meeting.”
Yet Imtiaz Sheikh is of the view that 80 per cent of the seats were announced with consensus and for only 20 per cent of the seats will all the parties be allowed to try their luck. “It is very difficult to run such an alliance but we have tried our best and the PPP will be having a tough time on most of the seats,” he claims. According to Jalal Shah, the alliance is in a position to deliver in 60 per cent of the cases.
On the other side Zardari neutralised Ghotki’s Mahars and then the Shirazis; the Mahars are with the PPP but Thatta’s Shirazis quit to contest independently. The Mahars have been given two national and two provincial assembly seats of Ghotki. Meanwhile the Dharejos, who beat the Mahars in 1988 and 1990, are upset with the party decision but remain with the PPP.
According to Sindhi writer and analyst Jami Chandio, this time urban Sindhi votes will behave differently and this will be troublesome for the PPP. “The party’s rural votes will remain intact, though,” he observes, adding that the 10-party alliance is driven more by an anti-PPP strain rather then any ideology. “The vote pattern will largely be a personalised affair,” he believes, “and those with personal worth and are accidentally with the PPP will win.”
Other political observers also say that voting patterns will be interestingly different. The PPP is facing stalwarts challenging its candidates on different seats, including Larkana. The deletion of duplicate or bogus votes — responsible for many a ‘poll victory’ in the past — will also play a crucial role.
Election dynamics in Sindh are peculiar in nature and voting patterns show different swings. Yet to say that the 10-party alliance will wipe out the PPP might be to say too much.