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Published 11 May, 2013 09:40am

How battles for provinces are shaping up

From the Newspaper

AHMED Saeed (not his real name) is a senior executive in a private firm in Lahore. A PML-N old-timer, he has never thought of voting for another party, especially the PPP. Even when the Sharif family had gone into exile and nobody was ready to wager anything on the PML-N in the 2002 elections, he made it a point to vote for his party.

But the surge in the popularity of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) in Punjab in recent months has created a difficult situation for him. He cannot decide whether he should stick to the PML-N or switch to the PTI when he goes to cast his vote today. Still, he has found a semblance of a solution.

“I will vote for the PTI for the national seat and for the PML-N for the provincial assembly,” Ahmed tells Dawn. Explaining that he does not find any ‘ideological differences’ between the two parties, he says he would like to test the untested PTI at the centre but wants the ‘experienced’ PML-N to be re-elected in the province.

Many people Dawn talked to came up with the same logic and in many conversations in Lahore the conclusion was reached that the PML-N will be able to get a sufficient number of seats in the Punjab Assembly to easily form its government.

“There is no danger to the PML-N in the provincial election,” says Hasan Askari, a Lahore-based political analyst. Yet he thinks that Imran Khan’s PTI will be present in the provincial assembly too, and as a force to reckon with.

The PTI has not been able to spell out its power ambitions in the province despite posing a potential threat to its rival’s quest for a majority on the 148 National Assembly seats from Punjab. “Unlike what has happened on the national seats, at the provincial level the PPP has failed to turn the contest into a triangular competition, which gives a big edge to the PML-N,” Askari argues.

Mohammad Waseem, professor of political science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, points out that Imran Khan has not campaigned for the provincial assem-bly or raised any Punjab-specific issue such as a separate province for the people of south Punjab. Neither has he named his choice to lead the PTI government in the province, if it should come to that.

Analysts argue that Imran Khan wants to hit the PML-N in Punjab at the national level.

“The PTI has focused more on forming a government in Islamabad. Perhaps its leadership thinks if the ‘PTI wave’ comes, it will sweep the party to power both in Islamabad and Lahore,” the LUMS professor says. He declines to guess as to which party will win in Punjab but says the PML-N remains the provincial front-runner so far.

It is hard to predict the strength of the wave the PTI is expecting to sweep it to power. “We cannot as yet say with certainty,” says a political economist who wishes to remain anonymous. “However, we cannot rule it out either.” — By Nasir Jamal

Over 18 million voters in Sindh are set to elect their representatives on 128 provincial assembly constituencies today amid security fears that have already restricted major players’ ability to conduct fully fledged campaigns.

The Sindh Assembly has 130 general seats but elections on PS-64 and PS-95 have been postponed due to the death of an independent contestant in Mirpurkhas and murder of an MQM-Haqiqi candidate in Karachi. For the five divisions of Sindh, 14,980 polling stations have been set up. Of them, 3,064 are being considered ‘highly sensitive’ and 5,702 ‘sensitive’.

The PPP and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) are the two parties to have fielded most candidates, 130 and 127 respectively, across Sindh. The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) has become the third most visible force, with 87 candidates, followed by the PML-F with 74. The PML-N, the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) and the Awami National Party (ANP) have fielded 45, 51 and 27 candidates, respectively. Additionally, 1,761 independent candidates are in the run.

In the 2008 general elections, an impressive election campaign by former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and a wave of sympathy following her assassination made the PPP the single largest party in the provincial assembly. The 2008 general elections were held on 129 general seats, of which the PPP won 71 followed by the MQM (39), the PML-Q (8), the NPP (3), the PML-F (6) and the ANP (2). Despite a simple majority, the PPP chose to forge an alliance with the MQM, the ANP, the PML-F, the NPP and the PML-Q to run the government. However, all of its allies left it one by one before the completion of the assembly’s term.

This time, there is no sympathy wave and the PPP has not had a visible or charismatic leadership for its election campaign and the chances of the party getting a simple majority again are very slim.

In Karachi and Hyderabad, firm control seems to lie with the MQM. But even in the rest of Sindh, the seats won in the previous elections by the PPP will no longer be easy wins for the party. The 10-party election alliance led by PML-F’s Pir Pagara, comprising nationalist parties as well as forces such as the JI and the PML-N, is gearing up to present a tough challenge to the PPP on several constituencies. (The alliance did not apply for an election symbol and the candidates of various parties are contesting elections on their respective party symbols.) Further, the participation of the JI and the PTI after a dry run in 2008 has made the contest on several urban and rural constituencies more interesting.

The PPP is facing serious challenges on several seats in Dadu, Tharparkar, Naushahro Feroze, Shikarpur and Jacobabad — even the situation in its stronghold Larkana is no different, where the Abbasis are squaring up against its candidates.

Yet, even staunch opponents of the PPP are pretty sure that the party will emerge as the single largest party of the province again.

As for the MQM, except a few Karachi seats, the party is set to regain majo-rity of the 39 seats it won in the 2008 elections. — By Azfar-ul-Ashfaque

Baffling possibilities in KP

IN Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, today’s elections are likely to throw up surprising results that may baffle the political parties, Dawn’s study reveals.

A host of factors could lead to this. Amongst them are the absence of political alliances and seat adjustments, the Awami National Party’s inability to run its campaign freely because of threats from the militants, and its poor past performance, the emergence of a new and yet untested political force — the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf — and last but not least, the resurgence of the PML-N here.

The PTI is a wild card in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, thanks to the enrolment of 1.6 million new voters and its assertion that this generation of new voters will fuel its anticipated tsunami. The PTI confidence of a landslide victory has left analysts guessing as to the possible outcome of the elections, particularly given that there is no data from past elections to draw conclusions. Could the PTI repeat the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal phenomenon? It is hard to predict.

Predictions can be dicey but an assessment can be made based on public perception, candidates’ own individual strengths, their parties’ strengths and vote bank, and tribal or family influence in a particular constituency.

The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly has a total of 99 seats. The PML-N, the JUI-F and the ANP can get into the double digits here. The case of the PTI is interesting: there are at least five seats where its candidates are likely to win, but then there are a horde of others, 14 seats, where its candidates are in close contests with rival candidates and a slight push could change the equation.

The ANP appears to be the major loser, followed by the PPP; the main beneficiaries seem to be the PML-N and the PTI. The Jamaat-i-Islami, which boycotted the 2008 elections, is also likely to bounce back with a single-digit win both in the provincial as well as the national assemblies.

Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao’s Qaumi Watan Party, which contested as PPP-S in 2008, is either likely to retain its position or may improve from its earlier five seats. As for the PML-Q, the party stands vanquished, with no candidate worth the name likely to land in the assembly. The Awami Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP) — a party local to Swabi — seems to be winning in two constituencies. Independents, which have always played a decisive role in the formation of governments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, seem to be doing well in 10 to 11 constituencies, thus retaining the crucial balance in the power-making formula.

In some national constituencies the contest is so tough that it is hard to predict the possible outcome; yet any party that can mobilise voters amidst the scare of terrorist attacks is almost certain to turn the tables on rival candidates and thus change the entire equation.

The ANP has the largest number of candidates, followed by the PML-N, the JUI-F and the PTI. —By Ismail Khan

All is set for elections on 51 general seats of the Balochistan Assembly for which over 930 candidates are in the run. All mainstream as well as Baloch and Pakhtun nationalist parties have fielded candidates.

Four nationalist parties which had boycotted elections in 2008 are participating in elections this time. They are Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M), National Party (NP), Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP).

The parties have fielded candidates keeping in view their vote banks in different areas. The PkMAP has not fielded candidates in Baloch-dominated areas and similarly Baloch nationalist parties have not fielded candidates in Pakhtun-dominated areas of the province.

In 2008 the PML-Q emerged as the leading party with 19 provincial assembly seats. The PPP won 13 seats, independents 12, JUI-F 10, Balochistan National Party-Awami (BNP-A) 7, Awami National Party (ANP) 3 and PML-N 1.

For elections 2013, there are many political heavyweights are in the run for provincial assembly seats.

Nawab Ayaz Khan Jogezai (PkMAP) is contesting from PB-3 (Quetta-III). The seat was won by Ismail Gujjar (PPP) in 2008.

Dr Abdul Malik Baloch (NP) is hopeful of winning PB-48 (Kech-I). The seat was won by Syed Ehsan Shah (BNP-A) in the previous elections.

Sardar Akhtar Mengal (BNP-M) is in the contest for PB 35 (Wadh-Khuzdar) and his challenger is Attaur Rehman Mengal, an independent candidate.

Sardar Sanaullah Zehri will defend his seat PB 33 (Khuzdar-I) on PML-N ticket.

Elected as an independent candidate in 2008, Sardar Aslam Bizenjo will defend his PB 34 (Khuzdar-IV) seat.

Asad Baloch (BNP-A) is running for PB 42 (Panjgur-I) from where he was declared winner in 2008.

Mir Sadique Umrani (PPP) is defending his seat PB 28 (Nasirabad-I).

Younis Mullazai (PPP) will defend his seat PB-4 (Quetta-IV) where his main challenger is Haji Lashkari Raisani (PML-N).

Saeed Ahmed Hashmi (PML-Q) is contesting election for PB 1 (Quetta-I) and his main challenger is Tahir Mehmood (PML-N).

Maulana Abdul Wasey (JUI-F) will defend his seat PB 22 (Qila Saifullah) and his challenger is Usman Kakar (PkMAP).

Abdul Khaliq Hazara (Hazara Democratic Party) is running for PB 2 (Quetta-II).

The former deputy chairman of Senate, Mir Jan Mohammad Khan Jamali of the PML-N, is running for PB 25 (Jaffarabad-I) against Haider Ali Jamali and Mir Attaullah Buledi, an independent candidate.

Balochistan has always thrown up a split mandate and this time does not promise to be any different. Predictions are already being made of a coalition government in the province. According to political observers, no party will be able to win a working majority in the province. — By Saleem Shahid

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