The by-election, scheduled to be held this month, for five National Assembly and four provincial assembly seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will prove a litmus test for the provincial government.

Except two provincial assembly seats in Hangu and Mardan, PK-42 and PK-27, the remaining seats were vacated by the winning candidates in May 11 general elections to opt for another constituency or another tier of the parliament. The seats in Hangu and Mardan fell vacant after the assassination of elected MPAs, both of whom belonged to the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI).

Farid Khan, the MPA from Hangu who got elected as an independent candidate and joined the ruling PTI before taking oath, was killed by unidentified persons on June 3, 2013. His killing caused widespread violent protests in his constituency and angry mob burned the houses of those people, who were blamed for his targeted killing. Few inmates were also burnt in the houses. FIR was registered against the rival candidate, who lost the seat to Farid Khan.

The MPA from Mardan, Imran Mohmand, was killed when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a funeral on June 18. The MPA was among 28 victims of the suicide blast. The other two provincial assembly seats, PK 23 Bannu and PK-70 Mardan, fell vacant when two former chief ministers of the province -- Akram Khan Durrani of JUI and Ameer Haider Khan Hoti of Awami National Party — decided to retain their National Assembly seats instead of the provincial ones.

The National Assembly seat NA-1 Peshawar was vacated by PTI chief Imran Khan after defeating Ghulam Ahmed Bilour, former federal minister and central leader of Awami National Party, in the May 11 elections.

Another National Assembly seat NA-13 Swabi was vacated by PTI provincial president Asad Qaisar after the general elections as he opted for the provincial assembly and was later made speaker of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly.

NA-5, a National Assembly seat in Nowshera, was vacated by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Pervez Khattak while NA-25 Tank-cum-Dera Ismail Khan fell vacant when Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who was the winning candidate from the constituency in the last general elections, opted for retaining the National Assembly in home constituency NA-24.

The National Assembly seat in Lakki Marwat, NA-27, was also vacated by the JUI chief as he had won three National Assembly seats in the May 11 elections. The results of the by-election for these vacant seats will show as to how people look at the performance of the PTI-led provincial government so far, voted to power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with the slogan of ‘change’.

The ruling and opposition parties have formed electoral alliances in different constituencies for the by-elections. About 61 candidates, belonging to different parties, have filed nomination papers for the five National Assembly seats while 27 are in the field for the four vacant provincial assembly seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Most of the political observers are keeping close watch on NA-1, once considered permanent constituency of Bilour family affiliated to ANP. People are of the view that Haji Ghulam Bilour will not contest for the seat again after being defeated by Imran Khan. However, he is again in the run for, saying “it is decision of the party to contest the by-election.” He also enjoys support of Pakistan People’s Party, an ally of ANP in the previous provincial government, and JUI.

Besides him, 11 other aspirants are also in the run for the National Assembly seat.

Interestingly, the ruling PTI is in disarray in the constituency as old guards of the party are not happy with the allotment of ticket. The disgruntled workers are issuing statements to media that they will support their own candidate, who is not contesting election on the party ticket.

They have also made it clear that they will form a separate group in the party, to be named as PTI-Ideological. “The leadership has issued ticket to a candidate, who is non-local and even his citizenship is dubious,” said a disgruntled PTI worker.

The opponents are also propagating that PTI ‘formal’ candidate Gul Badshah is an Afghan national and has obtained a fake Pakistani national identity card.

The ‘informal’ candidate of PTI from NA-1 is Samad Mursaleen, who is contesting the by-election in his independent capacity. “It seems difficult for the PTI to retain the seat. The two candidates of the party will harm each other. On the other hand, Haji Bilour, who has a strong vote bank in the constituency and used to win the seat in the past, has support of two major parties -- PPP and JUI,” said a voter in NA-1. He added that voters in Peshawar also felt ‘deceived’ as they voted for Imran Khan but he left them and retained another seat.

Like NA-1, a tough contest is expected between ANP and PTI for NA-5, Nowshera, although there are a total of six candidates in the run for the seat. ANP has again nominated Daud Khattak for the seat. He was defeated by Pervez Khattak with a huge margin. Pervez Khattak, who is also central secretary of PTI, has succeeded in getting the ticket for his nephew and son-in-law, Imran Khattak.

The situation in NA-13 Swabi-11 constituency appears similar to Peshawar, where internal differences and grouping have affected the ruling PTI badly. Like PTI workers in Peshawar, the Swabi local leaders and activists are not happy over allotment of ticket to Aqibullah Khan, the brother of provincial assembly speaker and provincial president of the party.

The old workers and local office-bearers of PTI were demanding of their leadership to award the ticket to district president Sohail Khan Yousafzai. However, PTI leadership didn’t lend a receptive ear to their demand. Irritated by the decision, the local leadership of Topi and Gadoon Amazai has threatened to boycott the by-election instead of voting for the brother of their provincial chief. “Our dream (of change) has been shattered by the wrong policies of the provincial leadership of the party,” a local leader of PTI was quoted by media as saying while commenting on the award of ticket.

There are 10 candidates in the run but real contest is likely between PTI’s Aqibullah Khan and Maulana Ataul Haq Darwesh. The ANP, which once considered Swabi as its second home after Charsadda, and PPP have also decided to support the JUI candidate.

The PTI candidate is backed by its coalition partners — Qaumi Watan Party, Jamaat-i-Islami and Awami Jamhori Ittehad, a Swabi-based political group.

Seventeen candidates are in the run For NA-25. The contest for this seat is expected among PPP candidate and former deputy speaker Faisal Karim Kundi, JUI candidate Asad Mahmood, who is also son of its chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, and PTI candidate Sardar Umer Farooq Miankhel.

For NA-27, Lakki Marwat, a tough contest is expected among JUI candidate Maulana Attaur Rehman, PTI’s Col Amirullah and Muttahida Deeni Mahaz contender Maulana Hidayatullah Querishi. For provincial assembly seat in Hangu, a local jirga has nominated the brother of slain MPA as a consensus candidate. “His chances are bright as he has backing of local elders and jirga. He will also get sympathy a vote,” said a resident of the area.

However, it is believed that candidates of the ruling party will have tough time in retaining the seats vacated by their party men. “Two months are really a small time to resolve problems of people but voters are not in a habit of waiting. They want their problems resolved immediately which is impossible. It is feared that the ruling party will suffer losses in the by-election as the two big problems of people, terrorism and power loadshedding, are still unresolved,” said an analyst.

On the other hand, a supporter of PTI claimed that people would vote for them in the by-election as the problems of terrorism and loadshedding are related to the federal government.