Economy in trouble

THE State Bank’s First Quarterly Report for fiscal year 2008 underscores the shifting of the economy into a slower gear. This is perhaps the first public admission by a government agency that all is not well with the national economy — something independent experts have emphasised for many months now. The document will come as a rude shock to the country’s economic managers who would have us believe that the economy is on the path of sustainable growth. True, we should not sound alarmist but neither must we forget that the slowdown could tip the economy into recession if the current account deficit becomes unmanageable, inflation gets out of hand and investors’ and consumers’ confidence hits rock bottom. The forecast of a global economic downturn on the back of an international credit crunch and high oil prices, and the possibility of serious political turmoil at home, could complicate matters. The ongoing energy crisis, especially the power cuts, could also paralyse the economy.

The report says the economy did “reasonably well” in the first quarter but admits that the risks are increasing because of an unfavourable global and domestic economic environment. The nation will miss its GDP growth target of 7.2 per cent. The current account deficit, which is predicted to expand to 5.2 per cent of GDP from 4.9 per cent last year on account of high crude prices and a slowdown in exports, is the major threat to economic stability. Foreign exchange reserves are under pressure and depleting. The rupee is weakening against the dollar. The fiscal imbalance has led to government borrowings from the central bank rising to over Rs191bn between July and November, exceeding both quarterly and annual ceilings as well as the preceding year’s trend and fuelling inflationary pressures. Core inflation will be to the order of 7.5 per cent against the target of 6.5 per cent. It will be impossible to meet the agricultural growth target of 4.8 per cent because of the poor performance of rice and cotton crops and fears of reduction in wheat output. Large-scale manufacturing has decelerated to 6.9 per cent, the lowest growth recorded since 2003. A mere 0.5 per cent expansion in textile exports against 2.5 per cent a year earlier represents a decline in international demand. Production of automobiles slowed down to five per cent from 11 per cent last year, signifying weakening consumer demand.

The housing sector has performed well, the report says. For how long though? The economy’s weaknesses are so overwhelming that one tends to overlook its few strong points. The report itself stresses the threat of “renewed macroeconomic complications, after five years of good performance, would be heightened if prompt actions are not taken to correct the recent drift in the fiscal indicators”. Given the government’s limited capacity and little room available to it to manoeuvre and fix the fiscal imbalances, we don’t yet know how painful the new period of economic downturn will prove. Nor do we know how long it might last. What we do know is that it is time to wake up and take stock of economic policies.

Renewed US threat

AMERICAN threats to intervene in Pakistan militarily have become a routine affair. This time, however, the threat has come after some gap and has evoked the usual response by the Foreign Office spokesman. Islamabad, he said, would not allow America to intervene militarily in Pakistan, because fighting terrorism in Fata and elsewhere was the government’s responsibility. One does not know who to pick up first for some plain speaking. The naivety being show by the Bush administration is amazing. Its stand suffers from a fundamental flaw: it wants quick results without having a full grasp of the intricacies of the situation. This is not a job that can be done in a hurry. The Taliban represent a movement which has existed in Afghanistan and Pakistan for decades. Its military and ideological roots lie in the anti-Soviet resistance movement which was armed and funded by the US. In the wake of the Soviet withdrawal, Washington washed its hands of the Afghan imbroglio. This enabled the ISI to fill the gap and use the Taliban for its own purposes.

The reversal of Pakistan’s Taliban policy in the wake of 9/11 and the American attack on Afghanistan weakened the Taliban only temporarily. As the current situation in the two countries shows, the Taliban have returned with a new vigour. Tackling this militancy and the ideology it represents are not tasks that can be accomplished only by military means or by the CIA’s covert operations. The second absurdity is the Bush administration’s belief that it knows something about guerilla war. Actually, going by the mess they have created in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Bush aides are the last people on earth to claim anti-insurgency expertise. As for the government, the American threats convey the obvious message: because of the political chaos the military-led government has created, the world has lost confidence in our ability to crush the two rebellions or even to ensure the safety of our nuclear assets. Looking at it from the point of the world, we as a people have demonstrated our inability to govern ourselves. For this tragedy we must blame all categories of ‘leaders’ — the generals, retired generals, politicians, the judiciary, the bureaucracy, ulema, academia, intellectuals, feudals, industrial tycoons and the media. All of them have shown a lack of sense of responsibility and brazenly violated the law in the pursuit of personal interests.

Private security lapses

SUNDAY’S daylight hold-up involving a foreign exchange company located in Karachi’s business centre is an indication of the poor level of security in place for even those firms dealing in large amounts of money. In this particular case, serious security lapses enabled two company guards and their three accomplices to make off with a sum of between Rs120m to Rs150m in foreign and local currency. While the private security company that hired the guards assigned to protect the foreign exchange concern must bear responsibility for the heist, there are other factors that may have contributed to it. Reports say that the security cameras had been switched off and that the company had failed to inform the police about the delivery of such a large sum from the airport to its offices. In fact, considering Karachi is witness to a number of robberies involving such guards, it would be appropriate to question the whole structure of security provided by private companies and the checks and safeguards at the banks, financial companies, etc, that they are supposed to protect.

For instance, although private security companies retain their employees’ identity cards, many do not verify their particulars or demand character references. Small wonder then that criminal elements enter their service. For their part, those approaching security companies for guards to protect their assets must be vigilant too. Not only should they be particular about installing additional security apparatus in their offices and operating this round the clock, they must be aware of the character of their own employees to minimise the possibility of an inside job. A high rate of crime, and an ineffectual police force to combat it, have left companies with no choice but to enlist the services of private security firms. But that does not justify any complacency on the part of finance companies. They must be choosy when it comes to trustworthiness and demand convincing proof of the integrity of those being tasked to protect them.

Evidence reveals the truth

“CAUSING any evidence of the commission of that offence to disappear with the intention of screening the offender” in a murder case is punishable by seven years’ imprisonment and fine (Section 201, Pakistan Penal Code).

“The most important aspect of evidence collection and preservation is protecting the crime scene. This is to keep the pertinent evidence uncontaminated until it can be recorded and collected. The successful prosecution of a case can hinge on the state of the physical evidence.” (‘Protecting the Crime Scene’ by George Schiro, forensic scientist, Louisiana State Police Crime Laboratory.)

A high-pressure water hose was used to wash away the crime scene at Liaquat Bagh immediately after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto on Dec 27. The same was done earlier when her cavalcade was bombed on Oct 18. Why? In contrast, when the periphery of the ISI headquarters was bombed the crime scene was immediately secured and no hose brought out.A Guide for Explosion and Bombing Scene Investigation, published by the US National Institute of Justice, mandates certain essential requirements.

“The investigator must ensure the integrity of the scene by establishing security perimeters and staging areas, contamination control procedures, and evidence collection and control procedures…. The investigator must ensure that photographic documentation is included in the permanent scene record. This documentation should be completed prior to the removal or disturbance of any items.” The physical evidence must be identified, collected, preserved, inventoried, packaged and transported to “establish that a crime was committed and link elements of the crime to possible suspects,” the guide adds.

“Patience and care are very important at the crime scene. The investigator should take the proper time and care in processing the scene. The work is tedious and time-consuming.” (‘Duty Description for the Crime Scene Investigator’ by Mike Byrd, Miami-Dade Police Department, Crime Scene Investigations.)

A clean-shaven young man pulled out a pistol, aimed and fired directly at Benazir Bhutto. These shots were fired from close, almost point-blank, range. Has any effort been made to identify the assassin? The assassin is clearly visible in photos and recordings and his identification could lead to his sponsors.

Did the subsequent bomb explosion kill the assassin or did he escape? If killed, it is reasonable to presume that the bomb was meant to eliminate him since Benazir had already been shot. If the assassin died in the subsequent explosion, were his remains secured? Have his fingerprints been matched against Nadra’s computerised databank to determine his identity? Has the bomb residue been secured? The explosive device provides information and may lead to the identification of the perpetrators.

The first thing an investigation does is to secure the murder weapon, the pistol and the casings of the bullets used by the assassin. The bomb blast would not destroy these hard metal objects. What happened to the pistol and the ejected bullet casings?

“Actions taken at the outset of an investigation at a crime scene can play a pivotal role in the resolution of a case. Careful, thorough investigation is key to ensure that potential physical evidence is not tainted or destroyed or potential witnesses overlooked.” (Janet Reno, who was then the US attorney general, writing in 2000.)

The police team appointed by the government of Pakistan to probe the assassination visited the crime scene for the first time on Dec 31, five days after the incident and after the place had been thoroughly scrubbed. The police officer chosen to lead the investigation was at the time performing Haj and returned to Pakistan on Dec 30. Did his absence from Pakistan at the crucial time determine his appointment? He said to reporters that he is waiting to be briefed before starting the investigation. Briefing the investigator?

The ministry of interior promptly determined that Benazir was not killed by a bullet or bullets even before the investigation team started its work. The lever theory was proclaimed. The shock wave of the explosion is supposed to have pushed Benazir against the lever of the vehicle’s sunroof, yet photographs and recordings show Benazir’s head disappearing before the explosion and immediately after the shooting.

“An investigator must not leap to an immediate conclusion as to what happened based upon limited information but must generate several different theories of the crime, keeping the ones that are not eliminated by incoming information at the scene.” (Forensic Technology for Law Enforcement workbook, California Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training.)

Why then did the interior ministry hurry to announce the cause of Benazir’s death and why did it adamantly stick to the ‘lever theory’ when evidence didn’t support it?

“Don’t just stand and speak of your work. A great investigator-technician allows their work to speak of them!” (‘Duty Description for the Crime Scene Investigator’.) Brigadier Cheema of the interior ministry insists the deed was done on Baitullah Mehsud’s instructions though the assassin and the person standing close to him, presumably the bomber, do not appear to be ethnic Pukhtoon/Taliban. Brigadier Cheema demonstrated that he does not even know the difference between Pushto, the language, from Pukhtoon/Pushtoon, the people speaking Pushto. And why does Mehsud deny responsibility if the killing was for his cause?

A couple of days before Benazir’s arrival in Pakistan she wrote to Musharraf naming those who would be responsible if she was assassinated. She also wrote to others. Why are these letters, documents the law categorises as “relevant”, disregarded?

“Statements, written or verbal, made by a person who is dead … when the statement is made by a person as to the cause of his death … such statements are relevant” (Article 46, Qanun-i-Shahadat Order). The superior courts of Pakistan have convicted persons on the basis of such declarations.

Will the investigators follow up on the statements made by Benazir? General Musharraf categorically told the nation on Jan 2, “I have no doubt that Baitullah Mehsud and Maulana Fazlullah … have got Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto killed”? Does this ‘verdict’ stifle Benazir’s accusations from beyond the grave?

Initially Musharraf refused to send for foreign forensic experts but after the credibility of his investigation was left in tatters, Scotland Yard’s assistance was sought to keep appearances. By the time the Scotland Yard team arrived on Jan 4, over a week had elapsed since the assassination. After washing away the evidence and the inexcusable delay, the trial is probably stone cold.

The government also appointed a judicial inquiry commission by an LHC judge “acceptable to Asif Ali Zardari”. Zardari refused and stated that he had no confidence in anyone as none were independent. When Gen Musharraf destroyed the judiciary and the Constitution on Nov 3 the state fractured. Does he still not realise the importance of a credible independent judiciary which the people trust?

Destruction and disregard of evidence shielded the terrorists who attacked Benazir. Whatever semblance of justice remained in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been annihilated. The assassin and the bomber are now star players on the national scene keeping secure the status quo.

OTHER VOICES: Bangladesh Press

Overhaul of advisory council is a must

Prothom Alo

THE council of caretaker government advisers should be overhauled to bring efficiency to the administration…. We noticed the advisory council had showed signs of dimming enthusiasm. Only an overhaul of the council can return enthusiasm to the administration.

We understand that only ten advisers cannot run all the ministries effectively. In line with the constitution, there can be no more than ten advisers.

A major challenge that the government failed to handle was the spiralling price of rice. Under the open-market principle, the government cannot control the prices of commodities but the market can be disciplined with proper management and adequate supply.

The council of advisers failed to handle the fertiliser crisis despite changes to the distribution system. Farmers took to the streets demanding an adequate supply of fertiliser. They complained of harassment at the hands of dealers. The fallout from the theft of rare artefacts, which were up for shipment to France, baffled the nation. The incident came to a close with the resignation of the cultural affairs adviser.

The caretaker government was meant to hold an election by the end of 2008 in line with the road map set by the Election Commission. Time is running out fast. We think the overhaul of the advisory council is crucial … to add speed to work and ensure peace in the country. — (Jan 4)

Ease market jitters

Jugantor

FINANCE adviser AB Mirza Azizul Islam says the government has something to do with the soaring price of rice in the local market. Rightly so.

The government will start ‘open-market sales’ of rice soon to alleviate the crisis. The programme is not limited to urban settings. Rural people will also benefit from it. The price of rice is also on the rise on the rural market.

Economists say the people in villages are also bearing the brunt of soaring inflation. The level of poverty in rural settings runs higher than in cities and towns.

Since prices are rising, the government may have to subsidise the supply of commodities. It is necessary to ensure that more rice and other commodities reach consumers through the sales points set up by Bangladesh Rifles. It appears that people are cutting down on consumption.

The government must take quick steps to ease market jitters. Bangladesh Rifles should be allowed to open more sales points to ease the suffering of people. Anti-corruption task forces, tasked with ensuring fair prices for consumers, must be more active.

The Trading Corporation of Bangladesh should play a vital role in checking the prices of commodities, including edible oil and flour. The government must make sure it is sincere in what it is doing. The chance of procuring rice from local farmers is slim. The government must opt for import from other countries. — (Jan 4)

— Selected and translated by Arun Devnath.