FIRST option, the preferred choice of Army House, Gen Musharraf goes before the present assemblies for a presidential vote and then, his own position secured, holds general elections.

Possible in good times, it is no longer possible in the present charged climate. No one will stand for it, not the lawyers’ community spearheading the struggle for democracy, not the people of Pakistan, not even perhaps, when it comes to the crunch, many legislators from within the Q League.

A dead option therefore. If Musharraf still insists on it, however, all the political weather indicators suggest unrest and turmoil, possibly even a civil disobedience movement. Don’t we have enough on our hands already?

Second option: setting his fears aside, and rising above self-interest, Musharraf goes for general elections first and then seeks a presidential term from the new assemblies.

Such a step would require courage and vision, not exactly surplus commodities in Army House or its environs. But for the sake of argument, if we assume that this step is taken, what will be the likely outcome?

To begin with, the national scene will stand utterly transformed, the air clearing and political tensions easing, and the major political parties turning away their attention from Musharraf and at each other’s throats at once. From a partisan figure identified with the Q League Musharraf would become an umpire above the political fray.

So why isn’t this option being considered seriously? Because of the downside. The Q League would be the first casualty of early elections. The moment they are announced its sand castle would disintegrate and there would be a stampede amongst its members as they seek refuge in other parties, especially PML-N and the PPP.

The MQM, which has benefited hugely under the Musharraf regime, would also feel lost. It cannot afford to get down from the tiger’s back it is riding. Karachi has become a dangerous place, as dangerous as Waziristan, the cult of violence the dominating principle of its politics. Groups like the Haqiqis, now lying low, have accounts to settle. The MQM won’t relish the prospect of uncertainty that would come with the announcement of elections.

The other casualty of early general elections would be Musharraf’s presidential ambitions. For where would be the guarantee that anyone will elect him president later? He is president not because of his approval ratings – you have to be out in the streets to get an idea of that – but because he is army chief, a position which has allowed him to bend the present system to his convenience. The only way he can remain president is through a contrived election from the present soon-to-expire assemblies. He knows this and so do his angels.

This precisely is the dilemma he is caught in. What he wants is no longer possible. What is possible doesn’t suit him.

But is it right and proper that the interests of 160 million people, if not more, should be subordinated to the interests of one man? Is any individual greater than Pakistan? This is what makes the lawyers’ movement and Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry’s petition before the Supreme Court so important. For on their outcome we will get an answer to the question whether in Pakistan, in Fakhruddin Ebrahim’s words, the rule of law will prevail or the rule of the gun?

If Pakistan is to move forward and democracy is to triumph, it is imperative that the lawyers’ movement, sparked by the defiance of Chief Justice Chaudhry, should succeed. What will be the tangible measure of its success? General elections first, obviously under a neutral caretaker set-up, and everything else, including who is to be president, afterwards. But this must happen soon, in the next fortnight at the latest, if the constitutional calendar is to be met. Otherwise, time will run out and we will have another crisis on our hands.

Strange that those who have mangled the Constitution beyond recognition should now become its most ardent defenders, saying that it is the Constitution itself that mandates a presidential election before general elections. Thus speaks mischief always, in the sweetest of tones.

The third option of course is to sweep everything from the table and impose martial law, a move fraught with so much risk that it is not even worth mentioning. For one, things will spin out of control and the glue holding things together (I trust the meaning here is clear) will be diluted. For another, someone else will be doing the imposing, not the incumbent, this being the way with the dynamics of martial law.

No, given the nation-threatening dangers involved, this is no option at all. There are only two options before the country: a presidential election igniting civil unrest, and therefore amounting to a victory for shortsightedness, or general elections first which will mean a victory for the rule of law and the Constitution.

What is it going to be? As already stated, if Musharraf could have his way, he would choose the first option. Sadly for him his power has weakened. His government is in disarray. It is no longer up to him to do as he pleases. The time for that is past. Pakistan’s lawyers have seen to this, as has Chief Justice Chaudhry. The writing on the wall is clear: general elections or chaos.

What will it be? This is a test of the nation’s collective wisdom. From this turmoil can something good be fashioned or is orderly, civilized governance too subtle and complicated an art for us to master? It is not only the Supreme Court on trial, whose decision in this case will have a profound bearing on the future direction of national politics. So too is the army high command. So are the political parties.

At crucial junctures in our history – the anti-Ayub movement, events leading to the break-up of Pakistan, the anti-Bhutto movement – both the army command and the political leadership were guilty of lapses of judgment, even of folly. Have we learned anything from the past or will the same mistakes be repeated?

American deputy secretary of state, John Negroponte’s specialty has been the destabilising of popular governments in Latin America. Is our political class looking up to him to bring about democracy in Pakistan? Nothing more underscores the bankruptcy of our political elite than the placing of false hopes in American mediation or influence. The US can give us a reborn or a reinvented Musharraf, not the military-free democracy which the people of Pakistan yearn for.

Lawyers are the heroes of the moment, their achievement all the more remarkable when set against the irresponsible role being played by some political parties. Engaging with a sinking dictatorship, as these parties are doing, is to hold out a lifeline to it, which amounts to stabbing the movement for democracy in the back.

Let alone this stabbing, doesn’t Benazir Bhutto (Mohtarma to her followers) realise what harm she is doing to herself and her own party? It’s no secret what her overriding compulsion is: relief in the Swiss corruption cases. If only someone could tell her that a civilian government will do her more good than a deal with Musharraf. But word from those who have had the chance to meet her recently is that (1) she seems to have taken a flight from reality and (2) the fight seems to have gone out of her. A pity that the PPP’s great legacy should be reduced to this.

The other great temporiser, indeed the leading practitioner of double-talk, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, is playing his own game. Self-interest has been his guiding principle throughout the Musharraf years. As the democracy movement enters a critical phase there is nothing to suggest he is about to change.

But I suppose it doesn’t matter because the popular movement started by the lawyers is now too strong to be sidetracked or sabotaged by conniving and favour-seeking politicians. The choice before the regime is only one and when the bugle for general elections is sounded, many things will fall into place. And the Q League will enter the halls of oblivion, perhaps always meant to be its last resting place.