Analysts are divided. On one hand the global output is on the rise and on the other oil consumption is growing too.

Who will gain? The International Energy Agency (IEA) now believes that non-Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) supply rise will ‘more than cover the gain’ in global demand in 2014.

Daily non-Opec output will rise by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) as compared to the projected rise of 1.2m bpd in consumption.

The United States is set to lead the gains due to shale revolution, but output increases are not limited to non-Opec producers only. Iraq now plans to export an average of 3.4m bpd in 2014 as against 2.38m bpd in November last. Iran is also posturing to increase output to 4m bpd. Libya also intends to reopen export terminals closed by protests.

And thus the speculation of crude market meltdown, which has been hovering for at least a couple of years now, never materialised. For a third year, international oil prices have averaged more than $108 a barrel in 2013 – like it did in2012 and 2011 - as feared oversupply from the US shale revolution failed to materialise because of production setbacks in other parts of the world.

However, some analysts are now underlining that 2014 will be the year in which rising output would finally overwhelm modest demand growth, sending prices lower.

Citi expects Brent to average $98 a barrel in 2014, averaging $80 a barrel through 2020 and beyond. “The US shale revolution, coming on top of the maturation of deep water production, paints a robust supply picture,” says Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citi.

A Bloomberg survey of last year’s most-accurate oil forecasters produced a prediction of $105 a barrel in 2014 from $108.71 in 2013.

They are saying that Brent crude prices will weaken for a second year in 2014 as US output expands and threats to Middle East and North African supply ease. “We’re expecting a surplus,” said David Bouckhout, the senior commodity strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank in Calgary, Canada.Deutsche Bank AG reduced its crude price forecasts for 2014 by about $10 a barrel from this year.

The bank lowered its 2014 estimate for US West Texas Intermediate to $88.75 a barrel from $98.59 this year.

“Rampant US oil supply growth and upside risks to Libyan and Iranian crude oil exports imply a bearish environment for global crude oil markets next year,” said Michael Lewis of the bank. “We see the growing risk of an oil supply glut developing.”

Others, however, argue supply will disappoint, providing a powerful prop for Brent. “The patterns of recent years are likely to repeat themselves because nothing has really changed,” says Michael Dei-Michei of JBC Energy, forecasting an average Brent price of $110 a barrel next year.

HSBC Global Research raised its long-term price assumptions for Brent crude oil but said it was not taking a “particularly positive” view because the global market looked adequately supplied. HSBC raised its Brent price estimate for 2014 to $100.00 per barrel from $90.00 and for 2015 to $95.00 from $91.00.

Oil demand may exceed analysts’ expectations next year as the US economy strengthens, said Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodities analyst at SEB AB in Oslo. The global economy will expand 3.6 per cent in 2014, from 2.9pc in 2013, the International Monetary Fund said in a report in October. “Oil prices should be set to stay around the $108 to $109 level seen this year, rather than set for a really bearish development.”

A rather less vocal group of analysts, as per Grant Smith, say that while appearances have changed, the global oil market has not. In a note to clients, Oswald Clint’s research group at Sanford Bernstein forecasts almost double Morse’s oil price estimate—$158 a barrel in 2020.

Bernstein’s arguments, among others, are that the US surge will be less than many expect, that global demand will surpass supply growth, and that Opec nations can’t subsist at sub-$100-a-barrel and will cut production to hold that as a price bottom.

Bernstein says prices this year will average $110. Uncertainty is set to rule the crude world in 2014 too.