Ignoring Pakistan will be shortsighted, dangerous: US think-tank
WASHINGTON: A US strategy for Asia that does not contemplate Pakistan’s role is incomplete and a policy that views Pakistan in the context of Afghanistan is shortsighted, says a US think-tank, Council on Foreign Relations.
A special report titled “Reorienting US Pakistan Strategy: From Af-Pak to Asia,” warns that focusing narrowly on security threats will “alienate Pakistanis and reinforce a dangerous hostility from Pakistan’s elected and uniformed leadership”.
The report’s author, Daniel S Markey, argues that Pakistan is also “unusually well positioned to play a non-aligned role”, maintaining ties with both Washington and Beijing and reap the benefits of each relationship without having to pick sides.
While highlighting the problems Pakistan faces today, the report insists that the country is not “doomed to a downward slide” as improvements in leadership and governance can enable it to play a more constructive role over time.
It warns US policy-makers that a hostile or violently unstable Pakistan would compromise the broader US agenda in Asia, whereas a cooperative, growing Pakistan would advance it.
The report, however, notes that groups like the Pakistani Taliban now attack Pakistan’s state institutions and civilians in ways that were inconceivable in prior decades and that raise doubts about Islamabad’s capacity to maintain basic law and order.
The report points that the current US strategy is interpreted in Islamabad “as part and parcel of an impending US abandonment of Pakistan, tilt towards India, and effort to contain China — all unwelcome developments”.
The paper warns that such concerns are likely to exacerbate Islamabad’s sense of insecurity and widen existing rifts with Washington.
To counter this, the report advocates a two-pronged approach: confront and quarantine the immediate threats it poses to regional security while integrating Pakistan into the broader US agenda in Asia.
The paper urges the US administration to open a formal dialogue with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Pakistan issues and explore options for expanded counter-terror cooperation with India.
It proposes that the United States restructure its military aid to Pakistan, decoupling it from the war in Afghanistan and focusing it instead on Pakistan’s efforts to fight terrorism within its borders.
The paper recommends that the United States create opportunities for Pakistan to develop relationships with its neighbours in Asia, particularly India.
To encourage a trade agreement among India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the paper proposes preferential access to American markets on the condition that those countries reduce barriers to intraregional trade.
It also recommends that the United States support the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline project and focus its civilian aid on other trade-related infrastructure such as roads, bridges and ports.
The report argues that more normal relations with India could enable Pakistan to act as a regional trade hub or even contribute to regional security.
Another recommendation that could raise eyebrows in Islamabad urges the US to discuss with India, after its general elections, the possibility of basing American military and intelligence operatives in the country.
This would allow the two countries to address threats posed by Pakistan-based terror groups in a post-Afghanistan context, it argues.