E.F. Hutton is the name of a brokerage firm in the United States that was best known for its commercial in the 1970s and 1980s. The commercial, based on the phrase, “When E.F. Hutton speaks, everyone listens,” usually involved a young professional at a dinner party. When he said that his broker was E.F. Hutton, everybody went silent and all ears turned to him. Last week that E.F. Hutton moment arrived in Bangladesh as Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri enjoyed our full attention. He spoke and we listened.

It was a purported video, at least a month old. Its authenticity was still unconfirmed, but the newspaper splashes screamed as though al-Zawahiri was already breathing down our neck. The ruling party leaders had a field day in the parliament. They pounded BNP, Jamaat-i-Islami and Hefajat-i-Islam like the Visigoths ransacked Rome.

The lawmakers did threadbare analysis of every aspect of what the Al Qaeda supremo said. They also speculated on every motive that must have prompted those who shot and uploaded that video. One leader, if I heard him right, even said with a great deal of confidence that it was the BNP chairperson who had asked al-Zawahiri over telephone to do his rendition. The television channels did their best as talk show guests on overdrive also stretched their imagination.

On the whole it was a Don Quixotic exercise fighting the windmills. But if you ask me, the Al Qaeda threat could be real. No, I am not talking about this particular one that was issued last week. I am talking about the future possibilities. I know it in the same way I know that someone neglecting himself is going to get sick.

If you look at the history of Al Qaeda, it was founded as a takfiri (a Muslim who accuses another Muslim of apostasy) organisation by Osama bin Laden at some point between 1988 and 1989. Its origin goes back to the Soviet War in Afghanistan. Since then this militant outfit expanded operations to Egypt, Iraq, the Maghreb (the region of western North Africa or Northwest Africa, west of Egypt), Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Syria, Thailand and Yemen. Thus, its trajectory has been a function of two things. It infiltrates where there's Muslim discontent and where national cohesion is jarred loose by internecine politics.

It requires reference to medical science for better understanding. The autoimmune diseases develop when antibodies and immune cells, by mistake, target the body's own healthy tissues. It's the same science that also drives the Al Qaeda strategy. It targets countries, where the immune system is already weakened by chaos and conflict.One doesn't have to be an Einstein to guess that Bangladesh is priming up as a fertile ground for disruptive forces. It's a Muslim country, where a section of its population is unhappy because religion doesn't get a greater share in their life and government. This is also a country, where people are fractured along the fault lines of irreconcilable political differences. If Al Qaeda is looking for its next foothold, Bangladesh should loom large on its destination list.

Our month-or-so-old state ministers of home and foreign affairs have assured us that we are fully prepared to fight back Al Qaeda if it ever tried to push its tentacles into Bangladesh. The fact of the matter is that they've said so by putting hope above experience. Mightier nations like the United States, India, Russia and the United Kingdom will vouch that the war against terror is easier said than done. It requires much more than lip service.

The bad news last week wasn't that a quirky Al Qaeda video surfaced to give us a rude awakening. Rather the bad news was how our politicians and intellectuals were fishing in muddy water, using a time supposedly of national distress to score political points. Had they been truly worried, they would have done exactly the opposite of what they did. They would have closed ranks with all political parties to secure the country instead of breaking ranks with them and leave it exposed.

Many of us know the fateful story of the shepherd in Aesop's fable. He amused himself by crying wolf, and when the villagers rushed to protect him and his flock of sheep, they only found the boy had pulled a fast one on them. One day when the wolf really showed up, the villagers didn't come to his rescue.

Those who cried wolf last week amused themselves politically. But if Al Qaeda chooses to show up, are we going to be ready? While we're accusing each other of being deficient in the spirit of the Liberation War, our liberty is spiriting away. One takfiri knows the weakness of another takfiri. Who should sense it better than al-Zawahiri that a callous nation, with its arms wide open, is courting his footprint?

The writer is Editor, First News and an opinion writer for The Daily Star.

By arrangement with The Daily Star/ANN