THE television channels are predicting a Modi sweep, almost wishing it, as India continues to poll through the five weeks till counting day. But given the mega levels of the publicity, that is being very consciously and clearly ratcheted up as the polling continues, it is still not very clear whether there is actual substance behind the predictions or just a concerted effort to manufacture a consensus, and then ram that consensus down every voters throat.

The constituency reports appearing in some of the newspapers that still do their basic job, appears to suggest real contests on the ground. The usual caste calculations, the community votes, the campaign and the candidate all acquire a face in the districts of the states, and in particular Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. But interestingly poll predictions for months now seem to be suggesting a complete rout say for the Janata Dal-United in Bihar, even before the candidates were announced and the attention of the rural electorate in these dense states had turned to the elections.

Looking back it is clear that the campaign surrounding Modi has been very well formulated, and has registered a what can be called phase-by-phase upward gradation. It started with the corporate support to make him the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. This was echoed in the willing media, and so when he did begin the fight for this within the BJP, he had the support of a cacophony of voices from the outside. Since then he has received amazing support on television channels with almost minute-by-minute coverage of his public rallies, unlike any other leader with his own carpet bombing advertising campaign covering the newspapers and the streets with his mug shots and promises.

The other BJP leaders who were on the front pages during the National Democratic Alliance government have disappeared from view, with the so called mainstream and national media taking a clear position in favour of Modi on all levels. The last was the big poll done between a company called Hansa Public Relations and NDTV to take the poll predictions to a new level, BJP with 230 seats, and the NDA with a clear majority. That this poll came out just a few days before the biggest polling day of these elections, with crucial states and constituencies going to the polls all over the country, was perhaps not a coincidence.

In this phase of the elections Modi is also giving interviews to favourite channels and interviewers. But instead of just the rallies the interviews now come as a big add on, and at least create a Modi flavour in the metropolis and amongst opinion makers and the middle class that are more influenced than others, by poll predictions and propaganda.

One wonders why then the Congress has fallen so far back. After all it is the only other party in India that can match the BJP with resources and money power but even so its publicity is abysmal when compared with Modi. Here one cannot say the BJP, as the party really does not feature in these elections, only Modi does.

But why is it that Rahul Gandhi is not getting the propaganda back up that Modi has managed for himself. Surely despite his colourless and too sweet personality, a good campaign could have been constructed around the Congress scion. Even in Delhi all hoarding space seems to have been taken up by Modi, with Rahul Gandhi posters few and far between. He is also not as visible on television, or on FM radio, where Modi ads really dominate.

Strange really as the Congress too is projecting a personality over and above the party, and one would have expected that Rahul Gandhi would have needed all the back up support he could get.

More so, as while his speeches have certainly improved in recent days, he needs to be projected as a more decisive and happening leader. One wonders whether the Congress at some point decided not to invest its money in an election that it is losing anyway? But here too the effort has to be to ensure that the performance does not slump into two digit figures, and remains at least a slightly more respectable 100 plus level.

This Lok Sabha election really has started revolving around personalities, thanks to the publicists and the corporates and the media. It is as if India has moved from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system where parties, candidates, manifestos, campaigns have become meaningless against the individual personalities in the fray. This of course includes Modi and Rahul Gandhi, but also at levels Aam Admi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal who has managed to carve out a niche for himself, in at least these elections. How he emerges out of these remains to be seen, but for now he has that little space that the media has tried, but not really managed to deny him.

The result of this rah rah is also that the concerned political parties do not move until and unless the top personality directs them accordingly. Modi has established almost complete control over the party organisation in these elections, with the old veterans like L.K. Advani marginalised, or like Jaswant Singh expelled. Similarly Rahul Gandhi has in the run up to these polls emerged as the leader of the Congress, whether the party likes it or not, with mother and Congress president Sonia Gandhi moving into retirement mode. It is Rahul Gandhi all the way, on posters and the dais that he too, like Modi, does not like to share with other prominent leaders of his party.

And then of course there is Kejriwal, also a virtual one man show for AAP, with the party listless until he arrives in a constituency to rev up the campaign and give it some direction. In AAP’s case of course this is not enough, as unlike Delhi, there is no wave in its favour in any of the constituencies and the battle is tough and hard.

An interesting and very important election for India as it will answer many questions, and give perhaps a new thrust to polity one way or the other. It will also answer the big question: can sustained propaganda and blitz actually influence the voters choice?

—By arrangement with The Statesman-Asia News Network