HE is neither a Lenin nor a Khomeini. But it is the mere folly of a ham-fisted government that has made a ‘revolutionary’ out of a charlatan.

Last week’s carnage in Lahore and a panicky reaction by the administration on his arrival has provided Tahirul Qadri with the spark he needed to ignite public outrage. But can he succeed?

There is indeed no dearth of political orphans in the country ready to piggyback on any pretender. Then there are also political parties using the event to raise their own stakes. But surely there will not be any winner in this political chess game.

Qadri has returned more than a year after he made a humiliating retreat to the comforts of his Canadian abode, hoping now to cash in on the growing public discontent over the failed promises of our national leadership. He vows to change the system through a mass uprising but is at the same time anxiously looking towards the military for support.

One wonders if Qadri is just a maverick or a cog in a wider power play.

One wonders if Qadri is just a maverick or a cog in a wider power play. Nothing can be said for certain in our political world of smoke and mirrors. His ever-hardening rhetoric exposes the dubiousness of his real mission. His sudden ascent to political prominence and the timing of his return lend fuel to some conspiracy theories.

Besides the overthrow of the elected government, Qadri now also seeks to mobilise public support for the offensive in North Waziristan. It is most intriguing the way he is trying to get the military involved in his political game plan. He called for the military’s protection as his flight was diverted to Lahore.

Qadri is playing an extremely dangerous game. It is exactly what he attempted to pull off during his previous dharna in Islamabad last year when he tried to create the impression among his followers that he had the blessings of the military as well as the Supreme Court. But the sham was exposed soon enough. The humiliation he suffered at the Supreme Court some weeks later was enough for him to fly back to Canada, abandoning his campaign. He then waited for a more opportune time to return.

In fact the PPP government handled last year’s protest much more deftly, getting him to the point where Qadri desperately looked to save face. Everyone knows the agreement the PPP government signed with the cleric did not mean anything. The Qadri balloon could have easily been burst this time too, had the PML-N government not used such terror tactics and unleashed Gullu Butt and the police on his supporters.

What happened in Lahore last week was a classic example of the PML-N’s arrogance while in power. The Sharifs may have gotten away with the use of brute force to subdue the opposition in the past, but this time the administration crossed all limits. Damage control by the government came too late and was too little to defuse the situation. The sacking of Rana Sanaullah and shuffling of some senior police officers has certainly not pacified public outrage. It is well known that it was simply not possible for the police to use live rounds without instructions from the top.

Those dead bodies became a handy tool for Qadri to galvanise his supporters and to rally round some other opposition parties. Imran Khan, who is already agitating against the Sharif government over alleged election fraud, has his own reasons to ally with the self-appointed Shaikhul Islam. The common cause may help the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf to step up the pressure on the government, but it is not certain to what end.

It is apparent that Qadri does not believe in the existing democratic system and appears vague about what he really wants. His slogan of “people’s revolution” is no less than a megalomaniac’s flight of fancy. A man who has left the country and decided to live permanently in Canada would find few takers for his pretentious ideology. It is hardly the make-up of a revolutionary leader to travel first class and then call for the overthrow of a ‘repressive and unjust order’.

Qadri’s support is largely a personality cult and sect-based. He does not have the kind of mass support that could present any serious challenge to the system. He has, however, created for himself some nuisance value largely because of the media publicity he has been able to buy with the large financial resources that he seems to have.

The source of his funding has long remained questionable. A friend who runs a public relations firm narrated to me how Qadri came to his office a few years ago with a briefcase full of money that he offered to pay the firm for organising an effective publicity campaign for him. Money has certainly not been any problem for the Shaikhul Islam. He claims the funds are donations from hundreds of thousands of followers across the world.

Qadri has developed strong connections in the West over the years. His campaign against terrorism and his religious decree against suicide bombing have won him many friends in Europe. But his support base among the Muslims in various parts of the world remains largely religious in nature and is certainly not based on his politics.

It is most intriguing why Qadri chose this time to launch his campaign to dislodge the government through undemocratic means. When the nation needs to focus entirely on the battle against violent militancy threatening national security, Qadri’s divisive campaign has diverted attention away from it.

Though it is Punjab that has become the main political battleground, its ripple effect is being felt across Pakistan. The country cannot afford violent agitation while thousands of its troops are engaged in a critical battle in North Waziristan and hundreds of thousands of people are displaced from their homes.

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

Twitter: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, June 25th, 2014