Michael Kugelman - Journalist, Associate Fellow at Wilson Centre

If we define success as dealing a devastating blow to militancy in Pakistan, then the answer is a resounding “no.”

Even if the operation manages to eliminate dozens or hundreds of militants, then this won’t solve the broader problem. Militancy is no longer restricted to North Waziristan or even to the tribal belt—it has become a nationwide affliction that has spread to Pakistan’s cities.

In my view, though, the operation won’t actually eliminate scores of militants. Since this operation has been hinted at for so many months, there’s a very good chance that many of North Waziristan’s top commanders and their fighters left the area long before the troops arrived.All this said, if we define the operation’s success as stopping all the terrorist attacks in the country, then there is cause for hope.

There have been very few terror strikes in Pakistan since the operation began. What I fear, though, is that this is merely the calm before the storm. The operation has scattered militants into other tribal areas or into Afghanistan. Once they regain their bearings, they will likely relaunch their attacks with a vengeance.