ISLAMABAD: The depletion of oil and natural gas reserves, especially in Pakistan, will reduce energy security sustainability in the region, although coal reserves both in Pakistan and India will still be substantial in 2035, calculates a new working paper released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

In South Asia, the energy security sustainability in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will decrease through in Bhutan and Nepal, it will remain almost unchanged since hydro and biomass waste will still be the main contributors to their energy systems in 2035.

There will be significant improvements in affordability of energy for Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in South Asia, says the working paper.

It said the oil-based power generation in Pakistan will be replaced by gas (from 30 per cent in 2010 to 43pc) and hydro (from 29pc in 2010 to 29.8pc) by 2035 in exchange for coal that will contribute 47.3pc of power generation.

Oil-based power generation in Pakistan will be replaced by gas and hydro by 2035

Although gas will be imported by Pakistan, its lower cost compared to oil will contribute to a lower overall LEC.

Afghanistan and Pakistan will improve their energy security with better integration with Central Asia which has important oil and gas reserves, the paper says, adding that from the analysis of energy security sustainability, Central Asia offers the most distinct benefits for regional integration.

Regional integration would alleviate the cost of importing fuels for island economies without indigenous fuel resources, and for those whose fossil fuel reserves will be depleted by 2035. In those economies, the regional aggregated levelised electricity cost (LEC) is lower than the national LEC.

Considered separately, the energy security sustainability of most economies will decrease substantially from 2012 to 2035, but the aggregate regional security indicator will remain high due to the fossil fuel reserves in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.

The paper says that oil and shale gas is expected to play an important role in maintaining energy self-sufficiency. Additionally, the region possesses substantial uranium reserves which are not being utilised.

Coal is the fossil fuel with the largest reserves in the region and, therefore, is the main contributor to carbon dioxide. In the business-as-usual scenario, the coal contribution to the primary energy mix will decrease only slightly from 46.4pc in 2009 to 40.2pc in 2035; and the oil contribution will remain virtually unchanged at 24.6pc in 2009 and 24.1pc in 2035.

Economies with few fossil fuel reserves will have more affordability issues in 2035 as they will need to resort to more capital-intensive power generation technologies such as renewable energy or to importing fuel for conventional generation. South Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia have the worst affordability and may need additional tariff support to ensure inclusiveness.

Published in Dawn, August 1st , 2014