IT has been three months since the start of the Zarb-i-Azb military operation. In this period there has been a remarkable let-up in suicide bombings and targeted killings by militant outfits. The military option, its supporters would hence argue, has been a resounding success.

The opaque nature of the relationship between the two principal antagonists in North Waziristan aside, it is preposterous to suggest that a military incursion into a relatively limited territory on the geographic periphery of the state could eliminate millenarian violence across the country forever.

There are militant groups operating with impunity in far less remote regions, including the Lashkar-i-Jhangvi in Quetta and Jaish-e-Mohammad in and around Bahawalpur. More significantly, mainstream parliamentary parties such as the Jamaat and JUI have well-established links with militant groups, whereas non-religious political groups, the ruling PML-N top of the list, at best tolerate the far right and at worst maintain alliances with it.

In sum, a consensus exists between mainstream political forces and extra-parliamentary militants. Lest we forget, the men in khaki are the crucial third party which mediates between all sides, directly intervening to re-establish order when any given militant faction transgresses the rules of the game.

The magic wand cannot continue to be waved with reckless abandon.

These periodic interventions by the ‘angels’ — as they came to be known in the wake of the GEO affair — often produce sensational results. Indeed, it is almost as if the guardians of our ideological frontiers possess a magic wand which can literally wave away inconveniences to their hearts’ content. Case in point — what would appear to be a relatively enduring peace established following the North Waziristan operation.

But then this was the case all those years ago in the immediate aftermath of the Swat operation. And there have been other lulls in violence too, almost all of which were preceded by initiatives that brought our army’s ‘heroic sacrifices’ into the spotlight. But the lulls have never lasted. I don’t wish to be the bearer of bad news, but somehow I doubt that this ‘peace’ is going to last very long either.

I wonder if it might just carry on for a little bit longer though, at least until the political hullabaloo that is the combined PTI and PAT show in Islamabad tides over. Following quickly on the heels of the Zarb-i-Azb ‘success’, the spectre of politicians dragging one another through the mud has been contrasted with the reasoned ‘appeals’ by the military leadership to resolve all outstanding disputes through dialogue.

In the wake of a ‘decisive’ military strike against terrorists posing an existential threat to the country, the credentials of the men in khaki have been further strengthened by their ‘impartial’ coaxing of mainstream politicians to act responsibly and restore political stability.

If, however, the Sharifs and Khans and Qadris of the world do not demonstrate the required sagacity, the magic wand might be called into action again, and a swift change in posture from non-intervention to direct intervention undertaken. It would be in keeping with the proverbial script.

It is another matter altogether that enough has changed in Pakistan that a military intervention — if one can possibly argue that the men in khaki have stayed out of the politicking over the past couple of weeks — would not be so widely welcomed as in times past. Indeed, our uniformed saviours are probably not even sure of support in the Punjabi heartland, let alone the restive peripheries, an indication of just how fractured the formerly hegemonic structure of power has become.

That is to say that the magic wand cannot continue to be waved with reckless abandon. But chan­ged circumstances call for new magic tricks. A host of media corporations are indeed at the beck and call of the wavers-in-chief, willing to choreograph just about any half-baked scheme that the latter cook up. And let us never forget that the men in khaki never hatch a plan without the support of one or other foreign patron — they have, after all, become quite adept at playing the New Great Game.

It is in many ways a case of the more things change, the more they stay the same. Certainly, it is important not to understate how fragile the military-dominated system has become, but it is also imperative that we recognise the extent to which the combination of the military-industrial complex and the corporate media are able and willing to manipulate public discourse.

To be sure, this manipulation is not just based on the desire of these magicians to ply their trade but also on how they make their millions. Their magic wands in tow, they can make a buck out of war, peace, political unrest and just about everything else. All copyrighted for special release in the land of the pure.

The writer teaches at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, August 29th, 2014