"When you surround the enemy
Always allow them an escape route.
They must see that there is
An alternative to death."

Sun Tzu, the Art of War

It was an interesting spectacle to see Saulat Mirza’s death row video, in which he directly blames Altaf Hussain, Babar Ghauri and Sindh governor Ishratul Ebad for ordering the murders of several people, aired on almost all local TV channels.

The fact that such a video was filmed and made available raises some interesting questions regarding process and legality; something that I am sure, will be exhaustively discussed in days to come with little to no result.

Editorial: Saulat Mirza’s ‘confession’

Shortly afterwards, and very much on cue, Saulat Mirza’s execution was postponed, with Chaudhry Nisar claiming, and I quote, that “he is not well enough to be executed”.

If you believe that, then you probably also think double shah is a good man to invest your money with.

In any case, it does indeed seem as if Mr Mirza will be convalescing for some time now, which is also part of a proud Pakistani tradition of exemption from justice due to medical reasons.

All this does make for fine political theatre of course, though it is unclear if this is the first or final act.

One thing that we can be sure of is the general plot direction, and here, it is evident that the powers that be have made a clear and firm decision to consistently target the MQM, or at least its ‘militant wing’.

The widely held view is that such a wing exists and that the gun-toting young men that act as party enforcers during every shutdown are very maaloom indeed.

Whether this wing was controlled by the top leadership is often denied by the party, but the general perception is that the failure to purge these elements, and to use them for enforcing shutdowns is indicative that the criminal elements were involved in the decision making process.

Some MQM parliamentarians and office holders even express the wish (carefully, in whispers) to see their party rid of these elements.

This particular operation, it seems, was finally decided upon in the recent Apex committee meeting in Karachi. This was followed by the Rangers’ raid on Nine Zero, something that was notable more for its symbolic value, and also for the diminished response it engendered from the MQM itself. Here too, are signs for those who observe.

Soon after came the FIR against Altaf Hussain himself, which was in response to what the rangers saw as a threat to their personnel. This was followed by the aforementioned Saulat Mirza video.

In operational terms, this is a classic technique:

You pick targets and then select and hit said targets repeatedly until something gives. The question of course, is what that ‘something’ is, and what the consequences will be.

While the MQM’s so-called enforcers may be a problem, they are not by any means the only problem Karachi faces.

Officially at least, the MQM is painting this as blatant and clear victimisation. Of course, the ‘mohajirs are being pushed to the wall’ rhetoric is what the MQM was built on, and it is a line that they have used, with diminishing returns, ever since.

These rhetorical outbursts became more strident after the failure of the Muttahida rebranding, which tried to paint the MQM as a more inclusive party. Subsequently, the MQM has refocused on its ethnic base, even though its rhetoric increasingly fell on deaf ears.

But one must not ignore the distinct possibility that the MQM’s ethnic base may now well fall for the argument that this is in fact ethnic victimisation.

Also read: 90 raid aftermath: MQM at crossroads

The lack of visible action against other groups in Karachi will strengthen that perception. Note also that this is not to say that such action is not taking place. The Lyari gangs have been targeted, and certainly an undeclared (and largely extra-judicial) action has been taken against other groups as well. However, the architects of this operation also need to understand that this is a perception game, and that the optics are as important as the actual action on the ground.

Simply put, there needs to be clear and visible action in Karachi against criminals and terrorists belonging to other groups as well, in the absence of which, the MQM’s victimhood narrative will find more subscribers.

Pushing all factions of the MQM against the wall will also possibly strengthen the hands of hardliners, provoking them into a violent and risky counterattack. Perhaps that too is part of the plan; to force their hand into an uncalculated response after which the Law Enforcement Agencies will have a Causus Belli.

But there are also forces in the MQM that would like to rid themselves of this bloody baggage, and those forces need to be strengthened. Sadly, that does not seem to be on the agenda, and the repeated blows to the MQM will likely weaken their hand, at least in the short term.

It is, of course, possible that moderate elements in the party are being secretly contacted and may well be providing information to the LEAs and so on, but this is simply something one can hope for, not something one can bet on.

There are also other narratives that need to be addressed; one is that the MQM must be supported simply because it is, in words beloved of certain segments of our polity, ‘progressive’ and ‘secular.’

This makes some so reluctant to criticise the MQM, so eager to drink this ideological kool-aid that they completely and willfully ignore the excesses of that party.

On the other end, are those who feel the MQM is evil incarnate and that every vote they get is at gunpoint. Both views are erroneous.

Then, there are other narratives; two in fact.

One has it that the targeting of the MQM is somehow an attack on democracy itself. This is of course woefully inadequate in terms of reasoning. If anything, the credibility of democratic parties (here meant to mean parties that are invested in electoral politics and not a comment on the way said parties actually operate) is threatened when those parties use violence to achieve political ends.

Similarly, there are those who, out of personal and institutional agendas or out of simple lack of nuance, view the MQM’s behaviour as an indictment of democracy itself, another opportunity to curse and malign those evil politicians that we are repeatedly told are the root cause of all our misfortunes. This approach is also incredibly shallow.

If we are to take Saulat Mirza’s words as truth, we must also ask why General Pervez Musharraf, a military dictator, allowed Babar Ghauri to be a minister in his government or allowed Ishratul Ebad to continue as governor Sindh.

Are we to seriously believe that he, with his complete command over all state organs and intelligence agencies, was unaware of their alleged involvement in Mirza’s crimes?

Madness, as the trope goes, is repeating the same action over and over again and expecting different results.

Granted, this is not the Karachi or the Pakistan of 1992.

Granted, militant wings running amok can simply not be tolerated at a time when Pakistan is at war on multiple fronts.

Granted, the dead cry out for justice and the living for relief.

But if one is to avoid blowback that will be both unpredictable and difficult to contain, then along with the sledgehammer one also needs to use a scalpel, along with the stick one needs to dangle a carrot.

Here then, we must trust the wisdom of our visible and invisible masters, and given their track records, that is quite a leap of faith.