AT the outset, I had tipped the co-hosts Australia and New Zealand to be the two sides battling it out for the ICC World Cup at the MCG on March 29, and that’s exactly how it’s turned out.

Hopefully, it will be an occasion to remember, but I must admit that part of me fears it could follow a similar path to the semi-final between Australia and India which promised so much but ended up being fairly one-sided. That could very well be the case today if New Zealand, who’ve played all their games at home so far, don’t adjust quickly to the conditions.

Don’t get me wrong! Brendon McCullum’s men have won thousands of admirers through the course of this tournament with the brand of cricket that they’ve played, and I’m no exception. What I love best about their approach is that they play with absolutely no fear. And they’ll surely be on a high from coming out on top in that thrilling semi-final encounter against South Africa.

But as I said, they are confronted with the challenge of adapting from the wickets and smaller grounds in New Zealand to what awaits them at the MCG. Throw in the fact that this is the World Cup final, a first for the Kiwis, so it will also be a stern test of their nerves.

Although, while Australia have been in World Cup finals before, only two players from the current squad — skipper Michael Clarke and Shane Watson — have actually played in one.

But there is one stat that New Zealand will take heart from, and that is the last time they played Australia at the MCG back in 2009, they won. Six of the current Kiwi squad including skipper Brendon McCullum and Daniel Vettori will remember that occasion fondly. And you can bet they’ll be discussing it a fair bit with their younger team-mates who weren’t around then.

Returning to the difference in New Zealand and Australian conditions, the wickets in Australia, especially at the MCG have been very generous to batsmen. So the ball won’t be doing a great deal. With both sides possessing quality bowling attacks, the winners most likely will be the team that better handle the opposition’s bowling.

New Zealand will recognise the value of having the outstanding Steve Smith back in the pavilion early, while McCullum would be on the radar of Starc, Hazlewood and Johnson.

Another important factor stems from the group-stage fixture between the two teams. That was a game which Australia went into having not played for two weeks and they struggled to apply themselves. But what ought to have been a convincing win for the Kiwis turned into a nail-biter which might have ended in a morale-boosting victory for Australia.

It’s set to be the last ODI game for Clarke. He sure has been a terrific servant to Australian cricket in general. In the eight years since I’ve been retired, he’s done some incredible things. Though he’ll still be around the Test scene, I hope to see him exit ODI game the same way I did in 2007, as a world champion! I’ve got a good feeling that he will.

By Special Arrangement for Dawn

Published in Dawn, March 29th, 2015

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