Chitral, the northern most district of Pakistan, is home to about 545 glaciers and nearly 12 glacial lakes of which four have been categorised as potentially dangerous by the Pakistan Met Department (PMD Survey Report, 2013-14.

Under normal conditions, the melting of these glaciers provides fresh water for not only the downstream parts of Chitral and Pakistan but Afghanistan as well. But conditions are no longer normal.

River Chitral, which in its lower course is also known as River Kabul, also receives the bulk of its inflow mainly from glacier and snow melt. Almost 80 per cent of the land cover of District Chitral comprises mountains, rangelands, pastures, snow and glaciers.

The presence of such a large number of glaciers and glacial lakes in the district, coupled with changing climatic conditions, makes the region highly vulnerable to climate change induced disasters, especially Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF).

For the last two decades, Chitral has been facing rapid melting of glaciers and associated disasters on a regular basis. From 2000 to 2010 the district has witnessed almost eight major glacial lake outburst floods, indicating that glaciers of the area are depleting much faster than predicted by experts and researchers. The pace of climate change, it seems, has been underestimated; from 2010 to the end of July 2015, another seven GLOFs have struck Chitral.

Climate change is also affecting rain patterns; there is an increase in the amount of water that the atmosphere can hold, which in turn can lead to more and heavier rainfall when the air cools.

Although more rainfall can add to fresh water resources, heavier rainfall leads to more rapid movement of water from the atmosphere back to the ocean, reducing our ability to store it for future use. Warmer air also means that snowfall is replaced by rainfall and evaporation rates tend to increase.

The rapid melting of glaciers due to higher temperatures will increase water supply to rivers and lakes in the short to medium term, enhancing the risk of flooding. In district Chitral many geo-climatic and anthropogenic activities are fuelling the process of climate change and related issues. Firstly, the climate of Chitral is dry and temperate; in such conditions regeneration of natural vegetation is often very slow. To add to that forest resources and vegetation in high rangelands / pastures are already limited in Chitral. This means natural sources of removing Green House Gases (GHGs) from atmosphere in the district are limited and this limited source is on the decline with each passing day, increasing the vulnerability of the area to climate change induced disasters like GLOFs and flash floods.

Secondly, Chitral is surrounded all around by high mountains, providing little options for the dispersion of GHGs to other areas. The situation became even worse when fuel-guzzling vehicles were allowed entry into the district in the late ’90s. Since 2000, the number of vehicles, releasing gases into the atmosphere has increased almost 500-fold.

Thirdly, wind circulation is also limited in district Chitral, which further limits the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants.

These factors are important when you consider that the glaciers in Chitral tend to be small in size — on the average ranging from five to 10sq km — which means that they are highly susceptible to even minute changes in the climate.

Furthermore, the slope gradients in the area, on which the glaciers are located, are highly steep and even a little pressure can lead to glacial outbursts. This has been witnessed in many valleys of Chitral including Brep, Sonoghor, Bindo, Booni, Pasum, Akrkari, Karimabad, Golain and Reshun during the last 15 years.

These glaciers are located in close proximity to human settlements, which means there is a high degree of human interference in the glacial ecosystem. Goat grazing, collection of fodder and cutting of trees for domestic fuel in this glaciated ecosystem continues uninterrupted throughout the year. Soot and other forms of airborne particulates generated from such human activities are deposited on the surface of the glaciers, which also leads to decreased albedo (reflectivity) of the glaciers.

In addition, there are no legislations for the management of glaciers and their ecosystem in Pakistan. The whole situation is leading to a very bleak future for the inhabitants of district Chitral and other northern parts of Pakistan directly; and indirectly to the entire downstream communities of Pakistan.

Thin analysis of the situation and different indicators reveals that the recent disasters in the district are indeed climate change induced. As a result of rapid glacial melt GLOF events have increased; similarly, water discharge in River Chitral is also showing an upward trend for the last 15 years. Precipitation trends are also showing a shift from winter to spring and warmer months.

Chitral was once again struck by disasters of different magnitude and typology on the night falling between July 15 and 16, 2015 and continued till a few days.

The prevailing situation demands further in-depth analysis to evaluate the possible reasons and impact of these possible GLOF events in the district. Besides, the situation also demands that efforts should be initiated on war footing to address the issue of climate change and its impact on stored water reserves (glaciers) in the northern parts of Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, August 23rd, 2015

On a mobile phone? Get the Dawn Mobile App: Apple Store | Google Play